Jan
11
There is no hotter topic in golf than
Michelle Wie trying to make the cut at age 16 in a PGA Tour event. Everybody has their opinions and I invite you to express them here. Here is mine:
She won’t do it.
As impressive a ball-striker as Wie is, she will need a terrific putting performance to make the cut. Yes, I know she has played this course a gazillion times and has much local knowledge. But nothing in her most recent performances leads me to believe this is the week.
But I must say that I would like to see her do it. I can just imagine the buzz that would create throughout the golf world. And besides, I’m always a sucker for the underdog.
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Jason Scott Deegan:
The Accidental Golfer:
Katharine Dyson:
Kiel Christianson:
She certainly maximizes her chances by playing on a course she is very familiar with.
But - If she misses the cut here, can we pretty much write her off for making the cut at any PGA event this season?
-Greg
My prediction is that she will make the cut. There will be a determined and focused Wie, and she will play 2 solid rounds.
She will hit a 70 and a 68, in what order I am not so sure.
She will make the cut with 2 shots to spare.
However, I'm predicting she will hit 68 then 71 making the cut assuming that the winds are lighter in the morning on Thursday, and the supportive home town crowd helps keep her from choking on Friday.
There is nothing tricky or intimidating about the course. All the pressure in the world will be on her shoulders, as this is the standard that she wants to set for herself. She is older now, but still running against the wind (not too original a thought.)
Here are 5 players with practically zero chance of winning, just like Wie:
Alex Aragon
David Ishii
Kevin Hayashi
Craig Perks
Beau Yokomoto
To give you a fair chance I even put in the 2002 Players Championship winner.
How many of them will beat Wie?
Why is Norman anti-Hawaiian? He lists three of five no-hopes from the islands.
Craig Perks has demonstrated that he can beat the entire field by winning the 2002 Players Championship. What 4 rounds has Wie ever shot that would make you think she could do the same? She has yet to even make a cut.
It's possible that Aragon caught lightning in a bottle by earning his card at Q-school with a final round 65 (to finish 12 under par for 6 rounds on a pair of 7,400 yard courses), but that is still more impressive than anything Wie has done. And at least he made a few Nationwide cuts last year.
The other 3 have no status on Tour.
SHANKS I consider Wie's 2003 SONY performance more impressive than just making a few Nationmwide cuts and barely squeaking through Q School. I have picked Wie for 47h, but I have more confidence that she will beat 4 out of 5 Q Schoolers(made cut beats missed cut, missed cut by 1 beats missed cut by 2 etc.)
Alex Aragon, many 3 cuts from 11 events on the Nationwide Tour last season. His highest finish was 37th and this was the Nationwide Tour.
That just doesn't suggest to me that he is capable of winning this pga event.
As regards Craig Perks, as I said, I wanted to pick someone to give you an outside chance.
However it is an extremely outside chance. Yes he won the players in 2002, but in 2005, he missed 21 cuts in 27 events. He has also missed his last 9 cuts. I don't think this is winning form.
Ron Mon, stick to your blogging. You poke your head into other's blog way too much.
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I amn't aware of any ban stopping bloggers from commenting on other bloggers threads.
Michelle knocked in a 6 ft 6 inch putt for par on the first hole. phew.
Don't worry Shanks, you won't be getting an update after every hole. Well not from me anyway.
Michelle's tied for 8th place but its still REALLY early in the competition.
She's a kid, and nerves will get to her, if she's close to the cut line tomorrow I don't know if she'll make it. She needs to build a big cushion today so she can be more relaxed trying to make the cut tomorrow.
I blame the wind, or the bees, or the flies, or the rain, or something else.
Don't worry, I think she will still do it.
Duval is 6 over after 8 holes.
Potential Winner????
Using my vast experience, and superior knowledge, I should inform you people, that that is not a particularly good start.
If she can get her score down to a +2 before the day is over, there is a chance but other than that I don't think she'll make it.
After her first bogey, everything just went downhill. Her caddy really should help her shrug off early mistakes, and keep playing with a positive attitude.
talking about the cut????
I think she is just playing for pride at this stage.
Rumour has it Stone has just backed her at great odds.
That's some sad-ass people rejoicing in a young girl's struggles.
It must really suck to be them.
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Under Par said:
Golf is a sport where your scores vary greatly from say to day. This is attributable to two things: firstly, the great number of variables on a glf course and, secondly and more significantly, the fact that even a couple of rounds of golf do NOT constitute a scientific sample, making what's known as "sample variance" a great factor.
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C'mon, Wie-wie, you can do it! You can get to ten over! You still have three holes left!
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Remember Under Par, "sample variance".
My friend Alex, I'm sorry you lost that fifty, but you see what happens when you listen to Asian boat people?
But as I stated, after the 2nd round is the time to deliver it.
I just wonder if the other Wiemen will have the chutzpah to show their e-faces on this board today
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What's to say, no one said what Wie is trying to do is easy. All you Wie bashers got nothing else to do but say nanana-told-you-so. Some of us graduated from the 3rd grade.
What do you think I am holding out hope of?
You started off your comment so well and finished so badly.
As you said she did have a bad day, as did many of the others.
The facts are indisputable though. In 4 events, she competed very well and nearly made the cut in 2 of them.
In Tiger's first 7 pga attempts, he got within 2 shots of the cut ZERO times.
So to say that she is out of her depth is certainly way off the mark. She has done very well on the whole, even if a 79 is something she would rather forget.
As regards saying that she will play well in the 2nd round because there is no pressure on her, what will you say if she doesn't play well?
Under Par--it was bad enough that you're a sexist turns out you're a racist as well.
That's why no one takes anything you say here seriously.
You are a reasonable man.
On a different note, I have a theory about Wie, one which, I will admit, may be incorrect. But it is a theory I've long subscribed to and you alluded to it in your post.
I've observed that Wie strenuously avoids competing with her peers . . . I think you already see what I'm getting at. When she was a junior she often played with older people, and now that she's older she likes to play with the men. And if you think about it, she has never had much success playing against her peers. What is the one tournament of note that she has won? A WOMEN'S amateur championships when she was thirteen. Moreover, the last time she played against her peers -- a girls' amateur championship -- she lost.
So what is my theory? I think it's entirely possible that Wie has a deep-seated fear of failure and can't take the pressure she places on herself when she's in a situation in which she's "supposed to win." This could be why she likes to play the men. Hey, anything she can do against them is a bonus; if she finishes ahead of one hapless player, they'll be saying that she "beat a full-grown man." When she was a junior playing against adults it was, "She's only a kid." Now that she's a gal playing against men it's, "She's only a girl." It's almost as if she only wants to be in a situation where she has a built in excuse.
Again, I could be wrong. However, I wouldn't want to have to bet a large sum of money against it. It just seems uncanny how she has eschewed her peers in favor of arenas in which she is an extreme underdog.
So I'll say a 72 then. Anything below 74 would be okay, and should ensure she would pass more players, which she could do with doing, for her confidence.
You still didn't answer my question. What if she has a bad round tomorrow, what does that meant then?, since you have already stated that if she puts in a good display, it is worthless.
I'm guessing you will probably jump on her if she has another bad round, but she she has a good round, it is only because ther is no pressure. Point made.
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Stone said:
As far as the dissapointment comment I think it ia fair to ask how many let downs it will take Wie fans before they concede that Michelle is not ready for this tour and how many before the realization creeps in that she may never be ready.
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Since Tiger was given 8 chances before he even got close to the cut, I think that would be a fair number. Give Michelle 8 chances, that's 4 more. If she has failed to make any cuts at that stage, then I think it is time to re-evaluate the situation.
By the way, whether you or I like it, Michelle will probably play the Sony Open every year for the next 20 years or so.
I am not the type of person who thinks she should jump into every pga event she can. I recognise she will play the Sony. However, I think she should play very few other pga events at this stage. She should save her appearances for when her game has developed more. Perhaps she should play the John Deere and leave it at that pga wise for this season.
She should also try to qualify for the US Open, and British Open, as this would be good experience. I don't think you would disagree with that.
Hopefully she will make a cut on a mens tour event, if she plays a few events in Asia, as I expect her to do.
As regards her play, I have already admitted that she had a bad day. Unlike others though, I recognise that this was indeed one of her worst days. People are trying to claim she is out of her depth, as if that day was an average day for her. Anyone with any sense should know that, what she delivered was well below her "mean", to quote Under Par.
Also Under Par, by saying that she will have a better round in the 2nd round, because of "deviation to the mean", I am glad that you have recognised that her "mean" is much better than she played in her opening round of golf. She is better than that.
Under Par, I've managed a little break, so I've been reading some of Norm's predictable excuses. Several people think that Michelle had a "bad day"or that she "struggled." I do not. She probably played as well as any woman could, Ronnie's fantasy notwithstanding. There isn't a tall, spindly 16-year-old anywhere on this planet that could have done better.
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Well Alex, you really have shown yourself up. You think that the 79 was not a bad day for her.
Perhaps you can explain how she shot 70, 68, 75 and 74 in her previous rounds at the Sony. Were these all lucky rounds, since you think 79 is her best stuff.
I was wondering, isn't it time to list the rankings of the various contenders and the "Alan Average" each one has?
Perhaps you should talk to the committee.
I did some research, checking out lower ranked players, because I wanted to give a list to Shanks, of players who had no chance to win.
Anyway, I just looked at a couple of senior players, and I found that many of them, last year at the Sony, in the wind, had their best pga result of the year by far.
This backs up my statement, that experience is hugely valuable when it comes to playing in the wind.
Of course, I accept the fact, that possibly MW might never be a good wind player. That is something that could be true, but I won't come to that conclusion just yet.
I commend you for your restraint on commenting until the Wie has played her 2nd round.
Hopefully her 2nd round, will be good enough to annoy some people.
If she can match this alledged 64 that she is supposed to have hit in practice, that would put her 3 over, and that is my projected cut line.
By the way, I think 74 is a little more likely.
Please name a score that you think would be a very good score for Michelle Wie.
You have all stated that she is not up to this sort of competition with these players.
What score precisely for round 2 would you think is beyond her abilities?
Day 2: Michelle to finish with a 70 or better.
Under Par---
Michelle shot a 68 (-2) today,Norman was correct in his prediction.
If only she had a better Thursday--the cut was + 3
Now, given the fact that Wie missed the cut by four strokes in her backyard, on a course where she is intimately acquainted with every blade of grass, how is she going to fare in other PGA events?
On a different note, did you see how the PC commentators were falling all over themselves to talk her up and conjure up the most bizarre excuses for her failings? Pillsbury dough-boy Charlie Reimer actually said that the fact that she has played the course a plenitude of times may be a "disadvantage"! LOL -- you can't make this stuff up. All golfers know that they would love to be at such a disadvantage.
I'll tell you, though, it's a good bet that they were instructed by superiors to paint Wie in a positive light. They probably received a lot of feedback to the effect of "She shouldn't be there," and were scrambling to polish up her image.
What a PC load a' garbage.
WRONG--
Michelle shot a 68 today.
The cut ended up to be + 3 ---she had a -2 today. Like Brad said if only she didn't have a hellish Thursday, she probably would have made it.
They did say on ESPN that Michelle's performance today was the lowest score ever posted by a woman in a men's round.
That's something positive to take away from it. She also improved by 11 shots from yesterday, that should also give her some comfort that she can adjust and learn from her mistakes.
I also will point out that I never said she couldn't shoot a good score. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while, which explains both Wie's good round and Norman's correct prediction.
At least they both saved a smidgeon of face, though.
Well- You would know a lot about Hitler wouldn't you...
Well she followed her worst score in a PGA round with her best score in a PGA round. Wished she would have made the cut but she made a respectable showing.
She's a kid people RELAX--even Rory Sabbatini was cutting her some slack.
He told the Golf Channel that while he was ranked in the Top 80 on the PGA , that he once posed an 89 in a first round .
Very intelligent response. Did you think of that all by yourself or did you plagiarize it?
Cheryl,
Actually, Wie shot a 68 at the Sony in one of her previous attempts.
I found so many things to talk about over the past 2 days, I'll have to post another blog about it tomorrow. But right now, I'm going to bed!
Yes, Norman was right. But c'mon, all he does is make one bold prediction about Wie after another. Probability comes into play here again, if you know what I mean.
Anyway, the bottom line is that his overall prediction was egregiously wrong, which is what happens when you operate based on wishful thinking. I stated prior to the event that I thought Wie had a 20% chance of making the cut, and I think that was an accurate assessment.
According to Chris Lewis from SI-talking about Michelle Wie's round today...
"But in variable, often blustery conditions, her 2-under tied for the 12th-best round of the day"
The rest of the article is on SI.com if you're interested, he basically says people will have to be patient with Michelle's development because of her stop and start schedule due to her school demands.
Her last tournament was 2 months ago, and it is difficult to get back into the groove.
Very insightful article...
But let the excuses fly . . .
How could you say such a nonsense!
Do you know whom Woods competed with when he dominated the amateur ranks?
Answer : all of them had school demands.
How many players other than Wie do you think have school demands?
Can you guess?
Michelle Wie has not dominated the amateur game - the only notable thing she has really done is sign a bunch of lucrative contracts. She expects to do it all at once - make the transition from Hawaii junior golfer to PGA Tour winner in one fell swoop. She has not the experience necessary.
If Annika can't make a PGA Tour cut, why does Michelle think she can? She's just flattering herself. Tiger didn't do that; he did not overestimate himself, but took the steps necessary to make himself into the golfer he is today.
Now, given the fact that Wie missed the cut by four strokes in her backyard, on a course where she is intimately acquainted with every blade of grass, how is she going to fare in other PGA events?
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She has already shown that she can perform at the John Deere, going around in 71, 70 for a 1 under total, her only under par finish in a pga tournament, so she can adapt.
Under Par said:
Pillsbury dough-boy Charlie Reimer actually said that the fact that she has played the course a plenitude of times may be a "disadvantage"! LOL -- you can't make this stuff up.
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I understand the point he was making. He said that the green are the same pretty much all year round except for this tournament when they were way much faster. That's a fair point, but I do think the benefits she would get from knowing the course outweigh this.
Norman--you and Michelle Wie have something in common, you are both at your best when you have nothing to lose. She played beautifully today just as I predicted she would. She displayed an iron game that I must admit was more advanced then I imagined.
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I don't have a problem with you suggesting that she plays well when the pressure is off. That isn't a big deal to me.
What I have a problem with is people who say that she simply cannot compete because she does not have the necessary physical atributes.
I think she has shown time and time again that she has the necessary physical attributes.
We could argue whether she has the necessary mental side to her game, but only time will tell.
78 at best, 82 if she has a bad day. As for that supposed 64, maybe she skipped a few holes.
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Phew Alex, your 2nd round prediction was even further away, than my 1st round one.
I found so many things to talk about over the past 2 days, I'll have to post another blog about it tomorrow. But right now, I'm going to bed!
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There certainly is quite a bit of material.
Also I have lots of information regarding both rounds, so I will try to come up with an answer as to exactly what went round. I think I know the answer but I want to get my stats checked out.
ONE QUICK PREVIEW
- In round 1, Wie drove the ball an average of 272 yards.
- In round 2, Wie drove the ball an average of 300 yards.
I know that stat is taken from just 2 holes, but I was watching the start of the round on tourcast, and was flabbergast when she drove it 334 yards on one hole.
Her driving was brilliant from the tv coverage also.
By the way, her average driving over the two rounds of 286 yards is far ahead of her previous pga rounds, the highest of which was 271 yards.
If Annika can't make a PGA Tour cut, why does Michelle think she can? She's just flattering herself.
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In the 2nd round Michelle drove the ball an average of 300 yards. Annika averages about 263 off the tee. That leaves Annika at a severe disadvantage.
Sure Annika is a much better player than Michelle on an lpga course, but Michelle has some attributes required to play a pga course well that Annika does not possess.
Soresntam probably would have averaged more than 263 under the conditions in question. You know as well as I do that the nature of the fairways makes all the difference in the world.
Sorry if I implied that Wie is 37 yards longer.
What I simple meant was that Sorenstams average is 263 yards, and she could not hope to hit it an average of near 300 yards over a round like that. I think we both agree on that.
Wie's average was 286 yards over the 2 days, that is what is important. I am just saying that she is quite a bit longer than Sorenstam, but perhaps about 10-15 yards longer. Next years lpga stats won't tell us much either, because Wie quite often probably won't be using the driver.
However, Alex then said, that not only had she peaked physically when she was 14, but her game was superior then.
Alex, in 2004 at the Sony, she got a 68 in nice conditions, with many long putts included.
In this years Sony, she got a 68 in much worse conditions, and didn't make any outrageous putts. She set up many birdie chances with the brilliant quality of her iron play.
Also, her distance has improved.
She was averaging 271 off the tee in 2004.
This year she averaged 286 yards.
She has improved a great deal.
I don't think I said that she was PROBABLY close to her peak; I believe I said, and I certainly do mean, that she MIGHT be close to her peak. My point was that it's not unprecedented to see a female athlete who peaks in her mid-teens. I was simply trying to refute the notion that she's "definitely" going to register great improvement.
Now, it must be said that it is likely that she will hit it longer with strength training, not necessarily better. And most people are able to improve their play around the green with intense practice. But her putting may never be better than it is right now.
More than that, the thing that interests me the most is the choking factor. Pressure has given her a lot of trouble to date and mental demons - once acquired - can be hard to expel. This is the downside of playing against only the best at such a young age. A lot of failure can be tough for some teenagers to overcome.
Under Par, as regards as her peak, are we talking physically here?
Physically she may well be close. As regards, her putting, short game shot making, course management, and shot selection I personally don't think she is near her peak.
In the 2nd round of the Sony, I think she showed that she is a work in progress. She made 7 birdies, and no player on day 2 made more than that. Only 1 player equalled that. Also though she made 5 bogeys. In my opinion, many of these were avoidable.
Her driving was very good. Her iron and wedge shots were stunning, and her putting was pretty decent mostly, but there were still areas of obvious potential improvement.
So, even without the physical side of things, there still is many other parts of her game that should improved with experience.
She is under far more pressure than anyone else in the field. I am not saying that is unfair, because that is the path she has chosen.
However I do think, she has handled that attention and pressure very well. Performances like at the lpga championships where players said she should not be allowed there, as a non member of the lpga. Yet she still came out and beat everyone in the field by 2 shots, except for the excellent Sorenstam.
I think you underestimate the amount of pressure she is under whenever she plays golf.
I think she will win on the lpga this season, provide that her best weeks don't coincide with Annika A game weeks.
However, many other players would go through the season and hit 5 scores of 79 without anyone even noticing.
For most players they have 20 tournaments or more laid out for them for the season, and they know that they need to do well in a few of them, or do really well in a couple of them to get their tour card. They want to do more, but are not under extremely pressure to do so.
Also, these players get to walk around the course with there caddies and their playing partners, and a couple of looker ons.
Michelle has massive galleries. As I have said this is due to the path she has taken, so she cannot complain about it, but the pressure is still there.
The pressure she is under is far from normal.
Shanks when you said, all she has to do is put 2 solid rounds together, I completely disagree with you.
For a pga event, she needs to put 2 really good rounds together, and not make many mistakes.
For an lpga events, solid rounds for her standard gets her a good finish.
She again would have to play maybe 2 solid rounds and 2 very good rounds and hope Annika isn't playing at her best.
For lpga, I don't think the pressure is as intense, because she can play average and get a decent finish.
For pga, she has much more scrutiny than any q-school grad or normal player, and the added thing of trying to do something unique in modern golf.
I think you're way off base here, Norman.
Michelle has the back up money to fall back on.
On the other hand normal players have to earn their money.
When Paula Creamer started her rookie year, she was playing for her livelihood. Wie has no such worries to contend with, and of course she has the just a girl excuse to fall back on.
Don't be naive. She's a GIRL playing in men's events -- how much pressure should she be placing on herself (All Pressure comes from within, by the way).
Of course, we can't know exactly what's going on inside her head, but the point is that she has a built-in excuse. If she does poorly, well, it's "She's only 16 --she's only a girl." And no matter what she does, it'll always be portrayed in a positive light by the PC media.
If Wie was just interested in money, as many posters have suggested, then the pressure indeed wouldn't be particularly great.
However going by that argument, why would she feel this great pressure about making a pga cut or winning an lpga tournament?
I still think it is massively exagerating to suggest that she would have any kind of lasting problem closing the deal.
The John Deere and Casio Open were experiences that should make her stronger. As of yet, I am not particularly worried about by them in the scheme of things.
In my opinion, they are just something every player goes through.
While I think she'll likely grow past it sooner or later, it is not guaranteed. It bears watching.
As far as the money, I don't agree with Baldwin, et al, that's what Wie is playing for. But we must recognize that it is very comforting that little hurdle has been removed. There's a long list of "bonus babies" in professional sports that never fulfilled their promise. I hope she does not become another one.
Playing on Tour is a dream job. Ever played under the pressure of losing your dreams? It's quite a fall from playing golf in the best places around the US to something like running a register or taking tee times on the phone - a job like most of the rest of the world.