« Observations of Michelle Wie from 2 rounds on the PGA TourLet's all jump to conclusions about Vijay Singh, Stuart Appleby and Michelle Wie »

115 comments

Comment from: Greg [Visitor]
Hmmm.... agreed and agreed.

She certainly maximizes her chances by playing on a course she is very familiar with.

But - If she misses the cut here, can we pretty much write her off for making the cut at any PGA event this season?

-Greg
01/11/06 @ 10:05
Comment from: Shanks [Member] Email
All I would say right now is that this is her best chance. She knows the grass, the grain, and subtle breaks on these relatively flat greens as well as anybody in the field. That familiarity is quite an advantage.
01/11/06 @ 10:24
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
I would completely agree that this is her best chance if it were not for her performance at last year's John Deere Classic.

My prediction is that she will make the cut. There will be a determined and focused Wie, and she will play 2 solid rounds.

She will hit a 70 and a 68, in what order I am not so sure.

She will make the cut with 2 shots to spare.
01/11/06 @ 12:17
Comment from: David [Visitor]
I don't think she'll make the cut. Sure, I'd like her to, but she always seems to find an amazingly creative way to blow it.
01/11/06 @ 14:24
Comment from: Paul W [Visitor]
It's easy to make an argument that she will miss the cut this time. It's supposed to be windy Thursday and Friday (gusts up to 40 mph) which will challenge her strength. Also, she will be playing on the afternoon Friday and should know what the cut line is as she ends her round, so there is plenty of opportunity to choke.

However, I'm predicting she will hit 68 then 71 making the cut assuming that the winds are lighter in the morning on Thursday, and the supportive home town crowd helps keep her from choking on Friday.
01/11/06 @ 14:28
Comment from: Young Y [Visitor]
As someone mentioned above, let's not forget John Deere. At the John Deere Classic, she played on a course with which she had very little familiarity and performed better than she did last year at the Sony. In fact, she was 2 shots or so within the cut line before she sunk herself with a double-bogey and a bogey near the end of her second round.
01/11/06 @ 16:45
Comment from: Ron Mon [Member] Email
If the winds don't blow, she plays the weekend. If the winds do blow, she watches on t.v.

There is nothing tricky or intimidating about the course. All the pressure in the world will be on her shoulders, as this is the standard that she wants to set for herself. She is older now, but still running against the wind (not too original a thought.)
01/11/06 @ 16:54
Comment from: jon [Visitor]
Predicting a result is like putting your face in a horses's ass. I try to avoid being manure smeared, but if I must, I would say a qualified yes to a cut without too much wind. In 2004 she almost made the cut when the weather was calmer, whereas in 2005 she played poorly in a windy condition.
01/11/06 @ 19:14
Comment from: stone [Visitor]
I think she does not make it this time around, maybe in the future, but not now. With what other golfer do we talk so much about conditions, specifically wind. the wind effects everybody out there I think it is a clear indicator that her game is not quite ready when conditions make or break you. Ron Mon, thanks for the shout out on your latest blog, but I have to respectfully disagree with your assertation that there will be, "all the pressure in the world on her shoulders". I believe there is very little true pressure on her, she will not be putting to win the tournament, she will be playing in front of a huge home crowd who believe she can do no wrong, this blog aside she is really not expected to make the cut and if she fails her fans will cite the weather, the conditions, the bogeyman, her age, intelligent design and anything else they can think of except her game. this is the very definition of nothing to lose.
01/11/06 @ 20:42
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Shanks, you stated that every player was more likely to win than Wie.

Here are 5 players with practically zero chance of winning, just like Wie:
Alex Aragon
David Ishii
Kevin Hayashi
Craig Perks
Beau Yokomoto

To give you a fair chance I even put in the 2002 Players Championship winner.
How many of them will beat Wie?
01/11/06 @ 21:05
Comment from: jay [Visitor]
There are two miyazato brothers who couldn't beat wie in Japan. They may have a hard time to beat wie at wie's back yards too.
01/11/06 @ 21:12
Comment from: Ron Mon [Member] Email
Jon, do you speak from experience? When you say "try," does that mean that it sometimes still happens? Predictions are great, as every now and then, one comes true. Kind of like hitting a shot the way you wanted to, and having it come off. You stand there and say, how sweet am I?

Why is Norman anti-Hawaiian? He lists three of five no-hopes from the islands.
01/11/06 @ 22:21
Comment from: June [Visitor]
Ron Mon, stick to your blogging. You poke your head into other's blog way too much.
01/11/06 @ 22:27
Comment from: jon [Visitor]
Funny, Ron. I try not to make predictions but it seems that I did say Wie will make the cut. Apparently, I wasn't trying hard enough.
01/11/06 @ 23:06
Comment from: jon [Visitor]
manure smeared in the face = sh*t faced. I have read too many Under Par jargons. Will repent.
01/11/06 @ 23:18
Comment from: Shanks [Member] Email
Norman,

Craig Perks has demonstrated that he can beat the entire field by winning the 2002 Players Championship. What 4 rounds has Wie ever shot that would make you think she could do the same? She has yet to even make a cut.

It's possible that Aragon caught lightning in a bottle by earning his card at Q-school with a final round 65 (to finish 12 under par for 6 rounds on a pair of 7,400 yard courses), but that is still more impressive than anything Wie has done. And at least he made a few Nationwide cuts last year.

The other 3 have no status on Tour.
01/12/06 @ 08:14
Comment from: Shanks [Member] Email
Everybody is strangely silent today .... waiting for the hole-by-hole scores to be posted on pgatour.com before commenting again?
01/12/06 @ 12:57
Comment from: Jim COULTHARD [Visitor]
I repeat my prediction elsewhere. Vijay wins and Wie finishes 47th.
SHANKS I consider Wie's 2003 SONY performance more impressive than just making a few Nationmwide cuts and barely squeaking through Q School. I have picked Wie for 47h, but I have more confidence that she will beat 4 out of 5 Q Schoolers(made cut beats missed cut, missed cut by 1 beats missed cut by 2 etc.)
01/12/06 @ 13:15
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Shanks,
Alex Aragon, many 3 cuts from 11 events on the Nationwide Tour last season. His highest finish was 37th and this was the Nationwide Tour.
That just doesn't suggest to me that he is capable of winning this pga event.

As regards Craig Perks, as I said, I wanted to pick someone to give you an outside chance.
However it is an extremely outside chance. Yes he won the players in 2002, but in 2005, he missed 21 cuts in 27 events. He has also missed his last 9 cuts. I don't think this is winning form.
01/12/06 @ 13:41
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
June said:
Ron Mon, stick to your blogging. You poke your head into other's blog way too much.
******************************

I amn't aware of any ban stopping bloggers from commenting on other bloggers threads.
01/12/06 @ 13:44
Comment from: Shanks [Member] Email
One missed cut in a PGA Tour event is superior to making through every round of Tour qualifying - including the 108 hole finale? Well, I'll be damned. Learn something new every day.
01/12/06 @ 13:57
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE

Michelle knocked in a 6 ft 6 inch putt for par on the first hole. phew.

Don't worry Shanks, you won't be getting an update after every hole. Well not from me anyway.
01/12/06 @ 14:02
Comment from: Sheryl [Visitor]

Michelle's tied for 8th place but its still REALLY early in the competition.

She's a kid, and nerves will get to her, if she's close to the cut line tomorrow I don't know if she'll make it. She needs to build a big cushion today so she can be more relaxed trying to make the cut tomorrow.
01/12/06 @ 14:25
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Sheryl, after a double bogie, Michelle is tied for 60th place.

I blame the wind, or the bees, or the flies, or the rain, or something else.

Don't worry, I think she will still do it.
01/12/06 @ 14:48
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Shanks,
Duval is 6 over after 8 holes.
Potential Winner????
01/12/06 @ 14:59
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Michelle is 7 over after 8 holes.

Using my vast experience, and superior knowledge, I should inform you people, that that is not a particularly good start.
01/12/06 @ 15:49
Comment from: Paul W [Visitor]
Thanks Norman, probably the least controversial thing I've read here.
01/12/06 @ 15:59
Comment from: Sheryl [Visitor]
11 holes left she is 7 over....
If she can get her score down to a +2 before the day is over, there is a chance but other than that I don't think she'll make it.
After her first bogey, everything just went downhill. Her caddy really should help her shrug off early mistakes, and keep playing with a positive attitude.
01/12/06 @ 16:00
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Sheryl,
talking about the cut????

I think she is just playing for pride at this stage.
01/12/06 @ 16:19
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
Don't despair . . . she still may break 80.
01/12/06 @ 16:41
Comment from: stone [Visitor]
Yeah, that Damn caddy!
01/12/06 @ 16:48
Comment from: Sheryl [Visitor]
Great --- hot-head Sabbatini is leading...
01/12/06 @ 16:52
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Does anyone else still think she will win the tournament?

Rumour has it Stone has just backed her at great odds.
01/12/06 @ 17:13
Comment from: Mike [Visitor]
She's +8 after 9. Another stellar performance by the "talented" Ms. Wie. Get a clue, girl!
01/12/06 @ 17:31
Comment from: Sheryl [Visitor]
Michelle's +7 after 14
01/12/06 @ 17:40
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
C'mon, Wie-wie, you can do it! You can get to ten over! You still have three holes left!
01/12/06 @ 17:50
Comment from: Jerrod [Visitor]

That's some sad-ass people rejoicing in a young girl's struggles.

It must really suck to be them.
01/12/06 @ 18:11
Comment from: jon [Visitor]
Those darned wind, gusting over 25MPH and blowing all the hats. My goodness. The match should be stopped immediately.
01/12/06 @ 18:14
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
In rough times, maybe it is good to quote wise words.

*******************************
Under Par said:
Golf is a sport where your scores vary greatly from say to day. This is attributable to two things: firstly, the great number of variables on a glf course and, secondly and more significantly, the fact that even a couple of rounds of golf do NOT constitute a scientific sample, making what's known as "sample variance" a great factor.
*********************************
01/12/06 @ 19:15
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Under Par said:
C'mon, Wie-wie, you can do it! You can get to ten over! You still have three holes left!
***************************

Remember Under Par, "sample variance".
01/12/06 @ 19:21
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha, yeah, it's sample variance. Her sample varies from missing cuts to missing them by a mile. Hey, but don't despair, Wiemen, she could go out and shoot a 60 tomorrow . . . ha-ha-ha-ha-ha.
01/12/06 @ 19:29
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
I just wonder if the other Wiemen will have the chutzpah to show their e-faces on this board today. Norman didn't waste any time, but something tells me that he's used to being wrong.

My friend Alex, I'm sorry you lost that fifty, but you see what happens when you listen to Asian boat people?
01/12/06 @ 19:38
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
I think when the 2nd round is finished, would be a a good time to give a quote to the anti-Wie people to show them just how two-faced they are.

But as I stated, after the 2nd round is the time to deliver it.
01/12/06 @ 19:47
Comment from: Paul W [Visitor]
Under Par said:
I just wonder if the other Wiemen will have the chutzpah to show their e-faces on this board today
*******

What's to say, no one said what Wie is trying to do is easy. All you Wie bashers got nothing else to do but say nanana-told-you-so. Some of us graduated from the 3rd grade.
01/12/06 @ 19:59
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
Hey, Normy baby, since you're still holding out some hope, would you like to place a wager on this? We could use Paypal.com. What kind of odds do you want?
01/12/06 @ 20:01
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Under Par,
What do you think I am holding out hope of?
01/12/06 @ 20:20
Comment from: Ronnie [Visitor]
If Paula Creamer was playing she would have hit a 75 at worst, and more likely around 70.
01/12/06 @ 20:33
Comment from: stone [Visitor]
Norman---There will be no, "I told you so" from me. We all knew that you would have to use the sample variance quote, but I think we are probably both suprised at how soon it was needed. I am actually dissapointed in Michelle's performance, but today changes none of my opinions of her. I still think she is a tremendous talent capable of great things on the LPGA tour, but as I have said numerous times she simply is not ready for the PGA tour nor am I convinced she ever will be. Funny that I should be the one offering up excuses for her, but a lot of people put up relatively big numbers today and by all accounts the course did play extremely tough today. That said she was never in this tournament and I have to wonder how many of these perfromances it will take before even her fans begin to question her aspirations on the PGA tour. I expect her to play better tomorrow as is her custom now that she has shot herself out of it, thus taking away what miniscule pressure there was in the first place.
01/12/06 @ 21:16
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Stone,
You started off your comment so well and finished so badly.

As you said she did have a bad day, as did many of the others.

The facts are indisputable though. In 4 events, she competed very well and nearly made the cut in 2 of them.

In Tiger's first 7 pga attempts, he got within 2 shots of the cut ZERO times.

So to say that she is out of her depth is certainly way off the mark. She has done very well on the whole, even if a 79 is something she would rather forget.

As regards saying that she will play well in the 2nd round because there is no pressure on her, what will you say if she doesn't play well?
01/12/06 @ 21:26
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
She will almost definitely play better in the second round because of something called "deviation toward the mean," another probablity and statistics term/phrase.
01/12/06 @ 21:54
Comment from: stone [Visitor]
Norman I'm sorry you were offended by the last part of my post. I simply believe, as I beleived before today that she is in over her head on the PGA tour, no matter what she shoots tommorow I will believe the same thing. I think you would agree that I am not one of the two-faced Wie bashers you mentioned earlier. As far as the dissapointment comment I think it ia fair to ask how many let downs it will take Wie fans before they concede that Michelle is not ready for this tour and how many before the realization creeps in that she may never be ready. I can smell the anger and venom in every one of your posts today Norman, you must admit that you are at least a little bit dissapointed in her play, by the result, by the fact that your opinion was wrong in regards to how Michelle would fare, by the fact that you have to listen to under par rightly gloat. I also stand by my pressure comments, Michelle in the past has played brilliant rounds of golf when she is in essence out of the tournament or in the case of the LPGA too far back to win. This goes back to my theory about pressure and her inability to either handle it or her avoidance of it, again theories and points I held well before this disaster today. One other note, the comparison with Tiger may still be in tact for another couple of years, but you do realize it will stop being relevant soon. It also makes you sound desperate and bitter. You have my respect for you're strong viewpoints and immpecable delivery, but you lost some points today by not just coming out and saying she played like shit today and looked nothing like the girl who was hyped all week as a serious threat to not only make the cut, but finish in the middle of the post cut pack(your words).
01/12/06 @ 22:18
Comment from: Shayna [Visitor]
"Asian boat people" ??

Under Par--it was bad enough that you're a sexist turns out you're a racist as well.

That's why no one takes anything you say here seriously.
01/12/06 @ 23:04
Comment from: stone [Visitor]
Shayna--Under Par does not need me or anybody else to leap to his defense, but in this case I feel the need to set the record straight. The term, "Asian Boat People" is certainly an offensive term, one which I would not myself have felt comfortable using even in jest, which is exactly how par was using the term(in jest). The getleman in question goes by the blog name of Asia Guy and has posted of his seafaring ways numerous times on this blog. To the best of my knowledge he lives on his boat and by the tone of his posts it is probably a good sized vessel. We have all had some good natured fun debating the past, present and future of Michelle Wie. While we all disagree, we do so with mostly good natured locker room type ribbing. I do not agree with everything Under par says and he may very well hold some outdated views about women, which again I personally disagree with, but I feel confident he is not a racist. I feel equally confident that Asia Guy when he's done licking his wounds over Michelle's first round will echo my thoughts. Under Par is very outspoken and expresses his views with conviction and clarity, you may not like them, but they are taken seriously.
01/13/06 @ 00:08
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
Stone,

You are a reasonable man.

On a different note, I have a theory about Wie, one which, I will admit, may be incorrect. But it is a theory I've long subscribed to and you alluded to it in your post.

I've observed that Wie strenuously avoids competing with her peers . . . I think you already see what I'm getting at. When she was a junior she often played with older people, and now that she's older she likes to play with the men. And if you think about it, she has never had much success playing against her peers. What is the one tournament of note that she has won? A WOMEN'S amateur championships when she was thirteen. Moreover, the last time she played against her peers -- a girls' amateur championship -- she lost.

So what is my theory? I think it's entirely possible that Wie has a deep-seated fear of failure and can't take the pressure she places on herself when she's in a situation in which she's "supposed to win." This could be why she likes to play the men. Hey, anything she can do against them is a bonus; if she finishes ahead of one hapless player, they'll be saying that she "beat a full-grown man." When she was a junior playing against adults it was, "She's only a kid." Now that she's a gal playing against men it's, "She's only a girl." It's almost as if she only wants to be in a situation where she has a built in excuse.

Again, I could be wrong. However, I wouldn't want to have to bet a large sum of money against it. It just seems uncanny how she has eschewed her peers in favor of arenas in which she is an extreme underdog.
01/13/06 @ 01:08
Comment from: Shanks [Member] Email
So, what's gonna happen today? Will Michelle wie salvage a little pride and shoot a decent number or will the wheels completely come off and result in another near 80? Or maybe something in between?
01/13/06 @ 08:51
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Shanks, given my last prediction, of 70-68 for Michelle, I'm probably not the best person to be predicting the 2nd round score.

So I'll say a 72 then. Anything below 74 would be okay, and should ensure she would pass more players, which she could do with doing, for her confidence.
01/13/06 @ 10:11
Comment from: Alex [Visitor]
Under Par, I've managed a little break, so I've been reading some of Norm's predictable excuses. Several people think that Michelle had a "bad day"or that she "struggled." I do not. She probably played as well as any woman could, Ronnie's fantasy notwithstanding. There isn't a tall, spindly 16-year-old anywhere on this planet that could have done better. That comment that made you out to be a racist because of the "Asian boat person" joke that I initiated rates 9.5 Alans.
01/13/06 @ 10:15
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Stone,
You still didn't answer my question. What if she has a bad round tomorrow, what does that meant then?, since you have already stated that if she puts in a good display, it is worthless.
I'm guessing you will probably jump on her if she has another bad round, but she she has a good round, it is only because ther is no pressure. Point made.

****************************
Stone said:
As far as the dissapointment comment I think it ia fair to ask how many let downs it will take Wie fans before they concede that Michelle is not ready for this tour and how many before the realization creeps in that she may never be ready.
**************************

Since Tiger was given 8 chances before he even got close to the cut, I think that would be a fair number. Give Michelle 8 chances, that's 4 more. If she has failed to make any cuts at that stage, then I think it is time to re-evaluate the situation.

By the way, whether you or I like it, Michelle will probably play the Sony Open every year for the next 20 years or so.

I am not the type of person who thinks she should jump into every pga event she can. I recognise she will play the Sony. However, I think she should play very few other pga events at this stage. She should save her appearances for when her game has developed more. Perhaps she should play the John Deere and leave it at that pga wise for this season.

She should also try to qualify for the US Open, and British Open, as this would be good experience. I don't think you would disagree with that.

Hopefully she will make a cut on a mens tour event, if she plays a few events in Asia, as I expect her to do.



As regards her play, I have already admitted that she had a bad day. Unlike others though, I recognise that this was indeed one of her worst days. People are trying to claim she is out of her depth, as if that day was an average day for her. Anyone with any sense should know that, what she delivered was well below her "mean", to quote Under Par.

Also Under Par, by saying that she will have a better round in the 2nd round, because of "deviation to the mean", I am glad that you have recognised that her "mean" is much better than she played in her opening round of golf. She is better than that.
01/13/06 @ 10:23
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Alex said:
Under Par, I've managed a little break, so I've been reading some of Norm's predictable excuses. Several people think that Michelle had a "bad day"or that she "struggled." I do not. She probably played as well as any woman could, Ronnie's fantasy notwithstanding. There isn't a tall, spindly 16-year-old anywhere on this planet that could have done better.
*******************************

Well Alex, you really have shown yourself up. You think that the 79 was not a bad day for her.
Perhaps you can explain how she shot 70, 68, 75 and 74 in her previous rounds at the Sony. Were these all lucky rounds, since you think 79 is her best stuff.
01/13/06 @ 10:25
Comment from: Alex [Visitor]
Norman on another thread I qualified my assessment of Miss Wie's 79. With the wind and the course conditions, no woman could have scored any better.
01/13/06 @ 11:58
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
Alex,

I was wondering, isn't it time to list the rankings of the various contenders and the "Alan Average" each one has?

Perhaps you should talk to the committee.
01/13/06 @ 12:10
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Alex,
I did some research, checking out lower ranked players, because I wanted to give a list to Shanks, of players who had no chance to win.

Anyway, I just looked at a couple of senior players, and I found that many of them, last year at the Sony, in the wind, had their best pga result of the year by far.

This backs up my statement, that experience is hugely valuable when it comes to playing in the wind.

Of course, I accept the fact, that possibly MW might never be a good wind player. That is something that could be true, but I won't come to that conclusion just yet.
01/13/06 @ 12:21
Comment from: Alex [Visitor]
Under Par, the Alan Cup committee won't convene again until mid-February. The banquet and awards ceremony won't be held until a later date. Alan, for whom the cup is named, had what most observers thought to be an insurmountable lead in the standings. But a late-season spurt by Ronnie has put Alan's crown in jeopardy. Dark horse June showed flashes of dimness, but she has faded badly of late. And earlier, right on this thread, Jim C made a comment that is at least in the nine Alan range. He was unequivocal in his assertion that Michelle Wie's missing the cut by one stroke in the 2004 Sony (he erroneously said the 2003 Sony) was a far greater accomplishment than that of a pro golfer who, after making a few cuts on the Nationwide tour, proceeded to the PGA "Q" school and qualified 16th out of 1100 after 14 rounds. The authenticity of that post has yet to be verified, but if it stands it will certainly makes the finals.
01/13/06 @ 13:40
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Shanks,
I commend you for your restraint on commenting until the Wie has played her 2nd round.

Hopefully her 2nd round, will be good enough to annoy some people.

If she can match this alledged 64 that she is supposed to have hit in practice, that would put her 3 over, and that is my projected cut line.

By the way, I think 74 is a little more likely.
01/13/06 @ 14:09
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Alex, Under Par, and Stone.

Please name a score that you think would be a very good score for Michelle Wie.
You have all stated that she is not up to this sort of competition with these players.
What score precisely for round 2 would you think is beyond her abilities?
01/13/06 @ 14:14
Comment from: stone [Visitor]
Sorry Norman, as you mentioned it gets a little difficult keeping track of the all the blog activity. I really need Spring to get here in a hurry, so I can play some golf instead of just talking about it. To answer your question I think another poor round for her would while being a dissapointment, would not be the end of the world as I agree with you that her game can not be fairly judged by two days. I also believe it would do nothing to discredit my theory of her putting herself into situations where she is not expected to do particualry well.(Stone's no real pressure theory) Well before this tournament I believed she was out of her league and nothing she can do today is going to change that. I have a question for Wie fans. What has Michelle Wie shown you in her past or present that leads you to believe that she can compete on the PGA tour? Wins in state and local tournaments played when she was not even a teen? A women's Public Links Championship 3 years ago? A handful of top 5 finishes on the LPGA tour? The fact that she hits the ball further then other women, but about average for a men's tour pro? Is it the fact that she almost made the cut at the Sony 2 years ago? What about her near miss on the Asian tour, or the 5th major that is known as the John Deere Classic? Just curious.
01/13/06 @ 14:25
Comment from: stone [Visitor]
I'm not biting Norman. You have already been made the fool for your predictions. I am not a bookie or a fortune teller and I am not going to set a score in what is an essentially meaningless round so you can say how wrong I was if she happens to play out of her head. Her goal was to make the cut. Many of her fans believed she would not only make the cut, but finish top 50, top 40, I even recall people talking about top 20's, Asia guy and his coconut phone were predicitng making the cut by 4 shots and from there who knows. My point is this, you can say whatever you want about her round yesterday, but the reality is shot herself right out of the tournament, the cut and the discussion(for the time being about her being able to make it on the PGA tour) So Norman anything she shoots today doesn't really matter to me, because she is really no threat to make the cut. You are a golfer you know that you have to put together two solid rounds of golf to make te cut and then two more to contend. She has yet to show she can do that, her 68 a couple of years ago was great, but wasn't good enough. that said, if she goes out and shoots a 64 to make the cut, color me converted. That 64 she supposedly shot in the practice round has about as much credibility as the 74's I shoot when I play beer golf with my friends, which is to say none.
01/13/06 @ 14:44
Comment from: Shanks [Member] Email
If the weather conditions match yesterday's, I suspect Michelle will shoot something like 73-75, unless she can manage to putt lights out. With not much in the way of nervousness to contend with, her ball-striking will likely improve over yesterday.
01/13/06 @ 14:54
Comment from: Alex [Visitor]
78 at best, 82 if she has a bad day. As for that supposed 64, maybe she skipped a few holes.
01/13/06 @ 15:12
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
I am going to make a bold prediction.

Day 2: Michelle to finish with a 70 or better.
01/13/06 @ 18:38
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
Man, Norman, you just love being wrong, don't ya? Predicting exact scores is a difficult endeavor, but I'll predict a 74 for Wie-wie.
01/13/06 @ 19:20
Comment from: Brad [Visitor]

Under Par---

Michelle shot a 68 (-2) today,Norman was correct in his prediction.

If only she had a better Thursday--the cut was + 3
01/13/06 @ 22:55
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
Well, Norman, you got one right finally. Of course, the conditions becoming that benign wasn't in the reckoning, and when you make "bold predictions" on a constant basis, one is bound to come true eventually. But I'll give you credit for predicting her final round score.

Now, given the fact that Wie missed the cut by four strokes in her backyard, on a course where she is intimately acquainted with every blade of grass, how is she going to fare in other PGA events?

On a different note, did you see how the PC commentators were falling all over themselves to talk her up and conjure up the most bizarre excuses for her failings? Pillsbury dough-boy Charlie Reimer actually said that the fact that she has played the course a plenitude of times may be a "disadvantage"! LOL -- you can't make this stuff up. All golfers know that they would love to be at such a disadvantage.

I'll tell you, though, it's a good bet that they were instructed by superiors to paint Wie in a positive light. They probably received a lot of feedback to the effect of "She shouldn't be there," and were scrambling to polish up her image.

What a PC load a' garbage.
01/13/06 @ 22:57
Comment from: stone [Visitor]
Norman--you and Michelle Wie have something in common, you are both at your best when you have nothing to lose. She played beautifully today just as I predicted she would. She had a free run at the course today without the pressure of playing to contend or even make the cut. Without the wind she played the way many expected her to. She displayed an iron game that I must admit was more advanced then I imagined. She did just enough to insure that the debate over her future will continue to rage on. Supporters will cling to todays round and say she has the game to compete, while doubters will look at yesterdays round and say she was already out of it thus disregarding today. Once again she has missed the cut and while she was never really close she once again created more questions then she answered.
01/13/06 @ 22:57
Comment from: Jerrod [Visitor]

WRONG--

Michelle shot a 68 today.

The cut ended up to be + 3 ---she had a -2 today. Like Brad said if only she didn't have a hellish Thursday, she probably would have made it.

They did say on ESPN that Michelle's performance today was the lowest score ever posted by a woman in a men's round.
That's something positive to take away from it. She also improved by 11 shots from yesterday, that should also give her some comfort that she can adjust and learn from her mistakes.
01/13/06 @ 22:58
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
Yes, Brad, and if Hitler had had a better Battle of Kursk, he might have won WWII. The bottom line is that, as I and many others predicted, she missed the cut. I even put money on it, by the way.

I also will point out that I never said she couldn't shoot a good score. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while, which explains both Wie's good round and Norman's correct prediction.

At least they both saved a smidgeon of face, though.
01/13/06 @ 23:02
Comment from: Brad [Visitor]

Well- You would know a lot about Hitler wouldn't you...
01/13/06 @ 23:11
Comment from: Cheryl [Visitor]


Well she followed her worst score in a PGA round with her best score in a PGA round. Wished she would have made the cut but she made a respectable showing.

She's a kid people RELAX--even Rory Sabbatini was cutting her some slack.

He told the Golf Channel that while he was ranked in the Top 80 on the PGA , that he once posed an 89 in a first round .

01/13/06 @ 23:18
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
Brad,

Very intelligent response. Did you think of that all by yourself or did you plagiarize it?

Cheryl,

Actually, Wie shot a 68 at the Sony in one of her previous attempts.
01/13/06 @ 23:21
Comment from: Shanks [Member] Email
Regarding the second round score of Michelle Wie, Norman called it right and everybody else was wrong. After first saying that 74 was more likely than 64, he settled on a 70 or better. It wasn't easy for him to speak up after that grisly first round performance. None of Wie's other supporters had the cajones to say that. Well done, Norman.

I found so many things to talk about over the past 2 days, I'll have to post another blog about it tomorrow. But right now, I'm going to bed!
01/13/06 @ 23:28
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
Shanks,

Yes, Norman was right. But c'mon, all he does is make one bold prediction about Wie after another. Probability comes into play here again, if you know what I mean.

Anyway, the bottom line is that his overall prediction was egregiously wrong, which is what happens when you operate based on wishful thinking. I stated prior to the event that I thought Wie had a 20% chance of making the cut, and I think that was an accurate assessment.
01/13/06 @ 23:58
Comment from: Scott [Visitor]

According to Chris Lewis from SI-talking about Michelle Wie's round today...

"But in variable, often blustery conditions, her 2-under tied for the 12th-best round of the day"

The rest of the article is on SI.com if you're interested, he basically says people will have to be patient with Michelle's development because of her stop and start schedule due to her school demands.
Her last tournament was 2 months ago, and it is difficult to get back into the groove.

Very insightful article...
01/14/06 @ 00:52
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
Y'know, Woods had school demands, too, but he still managed to dominate the amateur ranks like nobody's business. Wie couldn't even do that.

But let the excuses fly . . .
01/14/06 @ 01:35
Comment from: Brian [Visitor]
Under Par,

How could you say such a nonsense!

Do you know whom Woods competed with when he dominated the amateur ranks?

Answer : all of them had school demands.

How many players other than Wie do you think have school demands?

Can you guess?
01/14/06 @ 06:08
Comment from: David [Visitor]
Brian, it's true, Woods absolutely dominated the amateur game. It was only then that he felt he was ready to join the pro game. He now dominates that, but had the necessary experience first.

Michelle Wie has not dominated the amateur game - the only notable thing she has really done is sign a bunch of lucrative contracts. She expects to do it all at once - make the transition from Hawaii junior golfer to PGA Tour winner in one fell swoop. She has not the experience necessary.

If Annika can't make a PGA Tour cut, why does Michelle think she can? She's just flattering herself. Tiger didn't do that; he did not overestimate himself, but took the steps necessary to make himself into the golfer he is today.
01/14/06 @ 06:49
Comment from: John D [Visitor]
Boycott NIKE...If they go bankrupt, they will not be able to afford to pay for the exemptions!
01/14/06 @ 08:29
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Under Par said:
Now, given the fact that Wie missed the cut by four strokes in her backyard, on a course where she is intimately acquainted with every blade of grass, how is she going to fare in other PGA events?
**********************************

She has already shown that she can perform at the John Deere, going around in 71, 70 for a 1 under total, her only under par finish in a pga tournament, so she can adapt.


Under Par said:
Pillsbury dough-boy Charlie Reimer actually said that the fact that she has played the course a plenitude of times may be a "disadvantage"! LOL -- you can't make this stuff up.
*****************************

I understand the point he was making. He said that the green are the same pretty much all year round except for this tournament when they were way much faster. That's a fair point, but I do think the benefits she would get from knowing the course outweigh this.
01/14/06 @ 08:57
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Stone said:
Norman--you and Michelle Wie have something in common, you are both at your best when you have nothing to lose. She played beautifully today just as I predicted she would. She displayed an iron game that I must admit was more advanced then I imagined.
*****************************

I don't have a problem with you suggesting that she plays well when the pressure is off. That isn't a big deal to me.
What I have a problem with is people who say that she simply cannot compete because she does not have the necessary physical atributes.
I think she has shown time and time again that she has the necessary physical attributes.
We could argue whether she has the necessary mental side to her game, but only time will tell.
01/14/06 @ 09:00
Comment from: Alex [Visitor]
Under Par, We all should realize that the executives and producers at the various networks set the tenor of broadcasts and at times practically dictate what, who, when and how subjects will be covered. However, yesterday's second round coverage of the Sony on ESPN was often contradictory and at times bordered on the surreal. When Michelle had four birdies in a run of five consecutive one-putts on holes 8 through 12, Charley gleefully announced that that she was putting "lights out." When she three-putted from 50 feet on 14, he changed gears to "she just can't seem to figure out the speed of these greens." Before the bogie on 14, the guys in the booth said that she still had hope of making the cut, since she was the "hottest player on the course", and that one could not rule out Michelle going four under on the final five holes. After the bogie on 14, one of the geniuses offered that it could still be done with three birdies and an eagle on the final four holes. Maybe the committee should consider allowing announcers in the Alan Cup competition. The ESPN camera crew also got the message. They followed Michelle exclusively when her threesome was on the green, training the camera on her while she stood waiting to putt. This despite the fact that one of her playing partners, Camilo Villegas, was in the process of shooting the best round of the event, a brilliant 64. Only when Michelle had virtually no possibility of making the cut did the network air any of young Camilo's masterpiece, and then only the 16th and 17th holes. When the ESPN coverage ended, I switched to the Golf Channel for their post-round commentary. There, the normally sensible Brandel Chamblee came up with the "PC drivel" remark of the day. Despite the fact that Michelle had again missed the cut at the Sony, and by a substantial four strokes, Brandel said with a straight face that her play proved that she belongs on the LPGA tour and that she didn't have to worry about embarrassing herself on the PGA tour since she had "flirted" with making the cut. As Alan would say, "No hype here."
01/14/06 @ 09:01
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Alex said:
78 at best, 82 if she has a bad day. As for that supposed 64, maybe she skipped a few holes.
******************************

Phew Alex, your 2nd round prediction was even further away, than my 1st round one.
01/14/06 @ 09:02
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Shanks said:
I found so many things to talk about over the past 2 days, I'll have to post another blog about it tomorrow. But right now, I'm going to bed!
***********************

There certainly is quite a bit of material.
Also I have lots of information regarding both rounds, so I will try to come up with an answer as to exactly what went round. I think I know the answer but I want to get my stats checked out.

ONE QUICK PREVIEW
- In round 1, Wie drove the ball an average of 272 yards.
- In round 2, Wie drove the ball an average of 300 yards.

I know that stat is taken from just 2 holes, but I was watching the start of the round on tourcast, and was flabbergast when she drove it 334 yards on one hole.
Her driving was brilliant from the tv coverage also.

By the way, her average driving over the two rounds of 286 yards is far ahead of her previous pga rounds, the highest of which was 271 yards.
01/14/06 @ 09:09
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
David said:
If Annika can't make a PGA Tour cut, why does Michelle think she can? She's just flattering herself.
*****************************

In the 2nd round Michelle drove the ball an average of 300 yards. Annika averages about 263 off the tee. That leaves Annika at a severe disadvantage.

Sure Annika is a much better player than Michelle on an lpga course, but Michelle has some attributes required to play a pga course well that Annika does not possess.
01/14/06 @ 09:13
Comment from: Alex [Visitor]
Jim C, Has your opinion of "Q" school grads been raised any by their results thus far in the Sony? By your past posts, you seem to show much disdain for "Q" school qualifiers. I'd guess that you'd change your mind if you ever saw them in action personally. Your prediction that Michelle Wie would outperform 4 out of 5 "Q" grads was a trifle off. In fact, if it were not for her birdie on the last hole, she wouldn't have outperformed ANY of these guys. That last birdie put her ahead of exactly two of them. At least ten "Q" grads made the cut with "Q" medalist J.B. Holmes leading them with 70-66 136, 11 shots fewer than Michelle. Norman, take your dictionary and look up the meaning of "facetious."
01/14/06 @ 10:24
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
Norman,

Soresntam probably would have averaged more than 263 under the conditions in question. You know as well as I do that the nature of the fairways makes all the difference in the world.
01/14/06 @ 11:08
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
To follow up on my last post, to imply that Wie-wie is 37 yards longer than Sorenstam is quite stupid. She is longer, yes, but not by that much.
01/14/06 @ 11:31
Comment from: jon [Visitor]
Under Par. Check out pgatour.com stats. Wie averaged close to 300 yards and I think her longest drive was 323 yards or so. Just to put things in perspective, I think she is the real deal. I am impressed by her second round. Just wait till the summer when she can get into a groove. I think she will win at least one LPGA tournament. I would like to remind people that Golf is a sport where top competitors don't reach their prime till they are into 30s and even 40s for some. To say that someone at 16 has reached her/his prime is absolutely ludicrous. Michelle compares favorably to Tiger WOods at 16. Even a twit with a half a brain would realize that Wie has not reached her prime. She is playing part time for heaven's sake.
01/14/06 @ 11:57
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Under Par,
Sorry if I implied that Wie is 37 yards longer.

What I simple meant was that Sorenstams average is 263 yards, and she could not hope to hit it an average of near 300 yards over a round like that. I think we both agree on that.

Wie's average was 286 yards over the 2 days, that is what is important. I am just saying that she is quite a bit longer than Sorenstam, but perhaps about 10-15 yards longer. Next years lpga stats won't tell us much either, because Wie quite often probably won't be using the driver.
01/14/06 @ 12:27
Comment from: Alex [Visitor]
Under Par, As regards your contention that Michelle is one of those girls that has matured at an early age, you are on the mark. In yesterday's telecast, several shots of Michelle playing in the 2004 Sony were aired. I couldn't see any appreciable difference in her physique, or even in her demeanor, and her game actually was superior.
01/14/06 @ 13:04
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Hmm, Under Par was saying that Michelle was probably close to her peak. I wouldn't agree with that, but it is certainly a possibility.

However, Alex then said, that not only had she peaked physically when she was 14, but her game was superior then.

Alex, in 2004 at the Sony, she got a 68 in nice conditions, with many long putts included.
In this years Sony, she got a 68 in much worse conditions, and didn't make any outrageous putts. She set up many birdie chances with the brilliant quality of her iron play.

Also, her distance has improved.
She was averaging 271 off the tee in 2004.
This year she averaged 286 yards.
She has improved a great deal.
01/14/06 @ 15:11
Comment from: jay [Visitor]
Annika's ball speed was measured several times during lpga tournament. Her ball speed was consistently 142 MPH. Wie's ball speed is reportedly 161 MPH. Just for reference.

01/15/06 @ 07:28
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
Norman,

I don't think I said that she was PROBABLY close to her peak; I believe I said, and I certainly do mean, that she MIGHT be close to her peak. My point was that it's not unprecedented to see a female athlete who peaks in her mid-teens. I was simply trying to refute the notion that she's "definitely" going to register great improvement.
01/15/06 @ 12:27
Comment from: Alex [Visitor]
Under Par, I've decide to take a hiatus from this looney bin. You'll have to hold the fort solo until Michelle makes her next try at immortality. Norm, old buddy, you promised that you'd give an update on Michelle's performance in the Sony as compared to the "Q" school grads. Where is it? Ciao, Alex
01/15/06 @ 12:38
Comment from: Shanks [Member] Email
Under Par is right - there is no guarantee of improvement. Some people peak early.

Now, it must be said that it is likely that she will hit it longer with strength training, not necessarily better. And most people are able to improve their play around the green with intense practice. But her putting may never be better than it is right now.

More than that, the thing that interests me the most is the choking factor. Pressure has given her a lot of trouble to date and mental demons - once acquired - can be hard to expel. This is the downside of playing against only the best at such a young age. A lot of failure can be tough for some teenagers to overcome.
01/15/06 @ 12:47
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Alex, I will try to get that data for you in the next couple of days.

Under Par, as regards as her peak, are we talking physically here?
Physically she may well be close. As regards, her putting, short game shot making, course management, and shot selection I personally don't think she is near her peak.

In the 2nd round of the Sony, I think she showed that she is a work in progress. She made 7 birdies, and no player on day 2 made more than that. Only 1 player equalled that. Also though she made 5 bogeys. In my opinion, many of these were avoidable.

Her driving was very good. Her iron and wedge shots were stunning, and her putting was pretty decent mostly, but there were still areas of obvious potential improvement.

So, even without the physical side of things, there still is many other parts of her game that should improved with experience.
01/15/06 @ 12:53
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Shanks, when MW enters a tournament, she is under pressure from the get go.

She is under far more pressure than anyone else in the field. I am not saying that is unfair, because that is the path she has chosen.

However I do think, she has handled that attention and pressure very well. Performances like at the lpga championships where players said she should not be allowed there, as a non member of the lpga. Yet she still came out and beat everyone in the field by 2 shots, except for the excellent Sorenstam.

I think you underestimate the amount of pressure she is under whenever she plays golf.

I think she will win on the lpga this season, provide that her best weeks don't coincide with Annika A game weeks.
01/15/06 @ 12:59
Comment from: Shanks [Member] Email
Vijay Singh expects (and is favored) to win every tournament that Tiger is not in. Likewise for Tiger & Annika in EVERY tournament they enter. How can you say that Wie is under more pressure than that? All she has to do is put 2 solid rounds together to reach her goal there. I'm not buying that "she's got it tougher than everybody else" argument. What she has, so far, is a tough time handling the pressure on the course. Off the course, she does extremely well in handling all the attention. But that's not really the same thing, is it?
01/15/06 @ 13:56
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Annika, Vijay and Tiger are top players with big pressures.

However, many other players would go through the season and hit 5 scores of 79 without anyone even noticing.
For most players they have 20 tournaments or more laid out for them for the season, and they know that they need to do well in a few of them, or do really well in a couple of them to get their tour card. They want to do more, but are not under extremely pressure to do so.

Also, these players get to walk around the course with there caddies and their playing partners, and a couple of looker ons.
Michelle has massive galleries. As I have said this is due to the path she has taken, so she cannot complain about it, but the pressure is still there.

The pressure she is under is far from normal.

Shanks when you said, all she has to do is put 2 solid rounds together, I completely disagree with you.
For a pga event, she needs to put 2 really good rounds together, and not make many mistakes.

For an lpga events, solid rounds for her standard gets her a good finish.
She again would have to play maybe 2 solid rounds and 2 very good rounds and hope Annika isn't playing at her best.

For lpga, I don't think the pressure is as intense, because she can play average and get a decent finish.

For pga, she has much more scrutiny than any q-school grad or normal player, and the added thing of trying to do something unique in modern golf.
01/15/06 @ 14:09
Comment from: Shanks [Member] Email
And the guys you're talking about, shooting the occasional 79, are struggling to make a living/career out there. Wie has a guaranteed fortune in the bank. They are probably under MORE pressure than she is because they HAVE to succeed. If Wie doesn't make the cut, everybody says, she's only 16, she's a girl, etc. She has a built-in bona fide excuse.

I think you're way off base here, Norman.
01/15/06 @ 14:14
Comment from: Ronnie [Visitor]
You are right Shanks.
Michelle has the back up money to fall back on.

On the other hand normal players have to earn their money.
When Paula Creamer started her rookie year, she was playing for her livelihood. Wie has no such worries to contend with, and of course she has the just a girl excuse to fall back on.
01/15/06 @ 14:20
Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
Norman,

Don't be naive. She's a GIRL playing in men's events -- how much pressure should she be placing on herself (All Pressure comes from within, by the way).

Of course, we can't know exactly what's going on inside her head, but the point is that she has a built-in excuse. If she does poorly, well, it's "She's only 16 --she's only a girl." And no matter what she does, it'll always be portrayed in a positive light by the PC media.
01/15/06 @ 14:20
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Shanks,

If Wie was just interested in money, as many posters have suggested, then the pressure indeed wouldn't be particularly great.

However going by that argument, why would she feel this great pressure about making a pga cut or winning an lpga tournament?

I still think it is massively exagerating to suggest that she would have any kind of lasting problem closing the deal.
The John Deere and Casio Open were experiences that should make her stronger. As of yet, I am not particularly worried about by them in the scheme of things.
In my opinion, they are just something every player goes through.
01/15/06 @ 14:29
Comment from: Norman [Visitor]
Just to add to the last point, Shanks you may be right in your analysis, but I haven't got sufficient data to make that conclusion, for quite a while.
01/15/06 @ 14:31
Comment from: Shanks [Member] Email
Norman, I am not suggesting that she won't grow through these collapses. All I'm saying is that I've noticed she's been having them so far. There is a definite pattern.
While I think she'll likely grow past it sooner or later, it is not guaranteed. It bears watching.

As far as the money, I don't agree with Baldwin, et al, that's what Wie is playing for. But we must recognize that it is very comforting that little hurdle has been removed. There's a long list of "bonus babies" in professional sports that never fulfilled their promise. I hope she does not become another one.
01/15/06 @ 14:46
Comment from: Jim COULTHARD [Visitor]
From what I have heard, every player on the PGA makes a comfortable income endorsing products such as golf balls, Not 10 million a year, perhaps--but no player who manages to keep a card, year after year, need have any fear of going withut food, shelter, or clothing. And give me a break--any player who has ever made it to the PGA can certainly expect to find a job somewhere working as a golf something. In their own way, they are all like Michelle Wie--set for life.
01/16/06 @ 01:01
Comment from: Shanks [Member] Email
I'm guessing there are probably somewhere between 50-70 players who consistently keep their cards for a long period of time. For the rest of these guys it is a year-by-year proposition. And most get a relative pittance when it comes to endorsements. Will these guys go homeless & starving if they don't stay on Tour? Of course not. But do you have any idea what an assistant club pro makes? Ask around - you'll probably be shocked.

Playing on Tour is a dream job. Ever played under the pressure of losing your dreams? It's quite a fall from playing golf in the best places around the US to something like running a register or taking tee times on the phone - a job like most of the rest of the world.
01/19/06 @ 15:14

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