Feb
22
Much of the golfing world will be watching with interest this first fight between the heirs-apparent to Annika Sorenstam’s throne.
Morgan Pressel will come out fast in the early going but settle into another top 20 finish. Michelle Wie will counter with a surge of strong play through the first 45 holes, aided by an advantage in local knowledge. But it’s steady as she goes for a fierce Paula Creamer, who will pull away on the back nine to claim her first title of 2006.
Well, maybe. Or maybe not. That’s what I think. What about you?
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Jason Scott Deegan:
The Accidental Golfer:
Katharine Dyson:
Kiel Christianson:
Pressel is not a flashy player, but she makes up for that with consistency and a strong nerve. I think she's better than Wie.
Creamer is the most solid of the three, and has proven she is the best player (at least for now). If she plays well and Annika plays so-so (i.e. an awful week for the World No. 1), then Creamer will win.
Wie, Creamer, Pressel.
If the winds come or the rains fall:
Wie, Pressel, Creamer.
I just can't bet against Wie on her home course, Shanks, but I think Pressel is a better foul weather player than Creamer.
Where the Koreans will fall is still anybodies guess, but I'll bet they get noticed.
David. Why do you think wie is awful wind player? It is true that she shot 79 at sony but creamer also shot 79 and she did it on the course 1000 yards shorter than waialae.
Today: sunny, winds NNE 11 mph
Friday: mostly sunny, winds NNE 12 mph
Saturday: mostly cloudy, winds NE 12 mph
It doesn't sound like wind will be a big factor.
Then his statement that Annika would win, suggested to me that my hunch was right, given that Annika would be hard pressed to win when she isn't even playing.
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Then David said:
Pressel is not a flashy player, but she makes up for that with consistency and a strong nerve. I think she's better than Wie.
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Another little tip:
Pressel said that last week, she was playing very well in the final round, then she looked at the scoreboard with 9 holes to play and found that she was just 2 shots behind.
She said from then on she found it very hard to hit any kind of a decent shot. Does that sound like a strong nerve to you?
Neither Pressel or Wie have shown that they can win on the lpga as of yet.
I also pick Wie to have a better finishing position than Pressel or Creamer.
Wie 3rd
Creamer 5th
Pressel 8th.
Ochoa 1st.
Here are some bookmaker odds:
Creamer, P 15 - 2
Wie, M 10 - 1
Kerr, C 12 - 1
Ochoa, L 16 - 1
Jang, J 16 - 1
Gulbis, N 25 - 1
Miyazato, A 25 - 1
Han, HW 25 - 1
Park, Grace 25 - 1
Webb, K 28 - 1
Inkster, J 28 - 1
Pressel, M 28 - 1
Matthew, C 33 - 1
Kim, C 33 - 1
Obviously I'd love Wie to win, but in a 3 round event, they need a very good start to have a chance.
Wie knows the course well which will probably offset her possible rustiness. According to Pressel in her pre-round interview, "the fairways are pretty generous, but the greens are tough. There are a lot of greens with some pretty big slopes and tiers. A couple of the greens even have three tiers. And I think it's going to put a little larger emphasis on putting." Miyazato said the greens are small.
Generous fairways and small greens should be an advantage to Wie since she may be able to use her driver more and have shorter approach shots, plus her increased backspin should help with small greens. Wie is infamously weak at putting, but knowledge of the greens should offset that.
Pressel will struggle unless she improves her approach shots a lot from last week.
Creamer hasn't played her best recently. Maybe this is the week for her to step up her game as she will be motivated by Wie's presence.
I am a Wie fan, and I will be disappointed if Wie finishes any lower than first in this tournament. On her turf without Annika in the field, she should be the clear favorite. But even Annika loses half the time, so some of us are hesitant to flat out predict that she will win this week.
If you want a prediction, although I may be wrong, I will go with Wie to win.
The reason I haven't predicted Wie to win is because she's hasn't played competitively much recently.
The same is true for most of the field, but I think even just last weeks event would have helped alot of them.
I also think that she could maybe do with getting into contention a little more often. It is very difficult to win, when you haven't been in contention much, and she hasn't really been in there on the back nine very often.
Good and all as she is, it may take her a couple more tries. I do expect her to figure though.
I think the same for Pressel, I think she will need to be there or there abouts a couple of more times before she wins an lpga event.
As for Els, he is saving himself for the Masters.
Yeah, right!
I did back Els for Majors though, not World Golf Championship events.
On your other question, when will she win?
I think when she strings a few events together in the summer, if she can get some rhythm going from event to event, she has a good chance.
She still needs to have her good week when Annika is not at her best in order to win, in my opinion.
Btw, hope people are taking note of lpga events, Seon Hwa Lee is -5 for 5 holes, and is 4 clear of the field.
It could be a special round for her if she keeps going half decent.
But if Ernie had putted just half-way decent, he would still be playing. Woulda, coulda, shoulda .......
Monty went around in 76 and still got through. I think that just illustrates match play. He will probably shoot about 65 in the 2nd round.
Also Creamer is in last position on +2. Events are as clear as mud, as usual in golf.
Surely she didn't reach it in 2. If she did, it must be a short par 5, even by lpga standards.
Is it too early to start discussing final pairings?
Ochoa is hot isn't she, picked up 5 strokes in 4 holes!
Wayne, Wie is -4 for 7 par 4 holes.
She is only level for the 2 par 5's.
I do expect her to do well on the other 2 par 5's as you said though.
Good start. Hopefully she keeps playing well.
Morgan is playing steady with just a bit of a let down in the middle. She'll stay strong.
Paula is off to another slow start. I have no idea why, it certainly wasn't the wind today. But I think she will rebound tomorrow.
In the meantime, the Korean-Koreans [:-)]are kicking butt and taking names. And some of the older pros are feeling their oats in the early going.
Looks like plenty of excitement coming.
I wasn't sure whether Annika was in the field as I wrote the post before the event started.
I believe Annika is up in the mountains skiing.
She STILL has a better chance of winning than Wie does, though.
By the way, Norman, since you actually believe Wie belongs in the top 3 of the Women's World Rankings, that means your knowledge is even less than mine.
Being a professional, you ought to be wiser. You're a better player than Wie, but there is more than 2 women pros who could beat you.
Wake up.
On your 2nd post, that is pretty confusing too.
***David: She STILL has a better chance of winning than Wie does, though.********
Obviously that is an attempt at humour, but perhaps you could say she has the same chance of winning as Wie, to make the statement possible.
***Being a professional, you ought to be wiser. You're a better player than Wie, but there is more than 2 women pros who could beat you. ****
I don't really understand what you are incinuating here.
In answer, yes I am a better player than Wie.
No there aren't more than 2 womens pros who are better than me.
Your expression was "2 women pros who could beat me".
That depends on the course setup. On a mens tees setup, I don't think they could to be honest. Wie would have the best chance.
On women's tees, Annika would be a far better player than me. I don't think the others would be though.
>> 'Could it be that they don't understand that low numbers win in golf?'
Perhaps Michelle hasn't yet realised this (maybe she thinks that the longest hitter wins the tournament?), as we all know that her win tally is currently at zero.
I don't understand how, just because the tees are moved a couple of yards forward, the whole game changes.
Norman, you seem too fixated on distance. Maybe that's why you haven't yet made an impression on the world of professional golf?
Plenty of people have 'PGA Tour'-standard long games (e.g. Michelle Wie, you, the +2 handicapper at my club who hits the ball a mile, etc.), but can't chip and putt well enough to compete at the highest level.
I have played golf for some time and I assure you that the difference in mens and womens golf is not just moving the tees up a few yards.
It is practically a different sport. That is why some of us are surprised with how well Wie has done in her pga exploits.
If Creamer or Kerr or any of the other women thought that they could perform well with the men, I think they would do it.
Length is not the only important factor in golf, but you do need to have some sort of a reasable tee shot length or you are at a massive disadvantage for your second shot.
Touch around the greens is very important, but only the very top few woman are even of the standard of the average tier pga players in that regard.
Michelle Wie knows perfectly well how score is kept in golf. Indeed, if Jennifer Mario is right, she may have averaged less on her drives yesterday than Paula Creamer--and she certainly wound up 5 strokes ahead of Creamer.
In tennis, switching from grass to clay meant the difference between nearly total domination by Pete Samprass at Wimbleton, and no wins for Pete at the French Open. Golf is similar.
What happens when we move the tees back? Start with a short par 3. At a certain point, Annika will have trouble reaching the green in one. As long as they can both easily reach the green in one, let us say Annika has the edge. But if Norman can easily reach it in one, while Annika cannot--then there should be a big advantage for Norman. With longer holes there will still be situations where Norman's greater length may or may not result in substantial benefits depending upon the set up.
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Whose definition of "right"-fully?
My definition of "right" says that it is premature to make such a claim; that she needs more tournaments to claim that position.
Your "right" clearly agrees with my "right".
But the "right" defined by mutual consent of the governing bodies of five national ladies golf tours, says she is number 3.
Whose "right" you pick is up to you, it's a free country if you can afford the taxes;-)
At present, the rankings are a joke. I just hope it naturally aligns itself with reality within time.
:)
Try to keep in mind, that the rankings are based on a system of measuring performance.
It isn't like some person just decided to pick the names out of a hat, or that someone just picked the way they thought it should be.
Here are Wie's finishing positions over the last two years:
2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12, 12, 13, 13, 14, 19, 23, 33, dq.
Those are her positions in 15 events. That is why she is number 3 in the world.
The other girls just don't have such a good record.
Frankly, I would have liked to see Cristie Kerr in 2nd ahead of both Paula Creamer and Michelle Wie. Over the two years in 47 events Kerr has 5 LPGA wins, 4 seconds, 4 thirds and 23 top 10s compared to Paula Creamer's 33 LPGA events with 2 wins 5 seconds 2 thirds and 11 top 10s. Woule you really want to put Cristie Kerr in 3rd behind Paula Creamer?
It all comes down to that most hallowed of business principles--what have you done for me lately.
The most recent, most heavily weighted part of Creamer's record in better than Kerr's. But that seems to be changing most recently. Kerr topped Creamer in the SBS and is ahead in the Fields. Both are in the "hot 13 week" category so that should narrow the gap significantly, although I doubt that it will close it.
I want to add, that it is testimant to Paula Creamer's great performance that she is ahead of Wie in the rankings, despite Wie doing so well.'
Did you watch Paula's performance in the SBS and now the Fields Open Norman? She won't be numero two after this week. Kerr has a good shot at taking her place when the next list is published. Who knows? Maybe Michelle will rise up after this week, but I don't think she can hold the position.
Kerr might only be 3 positions behind Creamer, but she is way behind as regards average points.
She won't even get close to Creamer after this week.
The reason for this is, that although Kerr has won tournaments and had alot of high finishes over the last 2 years, she has also missed some cuts. She has missed 3 cuts and had a withdrawal, in the last 15 events. She just hasn't been consistant enough. Sorry Jim Coulthard, you need consistantly for a good world ranking.
As regards Paula, sure she hasn't started out great, but Ronnie did tell us that she is working on increasing her drives to 500 yards or something!
Paula won't lose that much ground in one event. It is averaged out over 35 events or so.
For instance her point average is 9.65
If she didn't get any points from this tournament her average would become 9.38
Kerr starts off at 6.94 and so won't close that much.
It is very much a coincidence, given all the publicity between these two girls.
Both hit 67, then 70.
Who will react better?
Who will get a better score and take a lead in the Jim Coulthard Pressel/Wie head to head competition?
A win looks unlikely, but maybe the company of Pressel will inspire Wie to play some great golf and go low. It should be interesting.
However, Michelle has been known to fold more often than Morgan.
Michelle doesn't hit the ball that far, and it appears that Paula is hitting the ball just as far this week.
If she comes in near par, and Gulbis shoots in the high sixties, then there are 12 other players within striking distance.
Could be another cliff-hanger, or Lee might run away with it in just her third LPGA start. (She missed the cut in the '04 Open, and tied 13th in the SBS).
I'm surprised Natalie Gulbis can be this good with that unorthodox swing of hers. Butch Harmon, her swing coach, has a lot of work to do to cut down on that lunging motion of hers.
It'll be interesting to see how she bounces back from the loss. She's got to get Wie out of her system and learn to channel her competitiveness.
Paula Creamer came from out of the gutter to tie 11th.
Michelle Wie came from 6 down to walk off the 18th green with a share of the lead.
Meena Lee came from 6 down to win it in a shoot-out.
Seon Hwa Lee held on mightily for a Rookie in her third LPGA Start...no shame in that second at all.
Julieta Granada let the world know she was there.
And despite all the hoots and guffaws from some on the blog, Morgan Pressel had three rounds under par and made a good rookie showing.
Bottomline in this camp? The Fields started a little sluggishly and then turned on all the fireworks you could hope for on the last day. I'm satisfied.
Norman, I bet you'd really love for Michelle to score better than Morgan.
However, Michelle has been known to fold more often than Morgan.
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Look how wrong your little prediction turned out to be, and you take issue with my perfect prediction of 3rd place for Michelle.
I thought picking her for 3rd place was very ambitious, given the schedule she has, and her school commitments and all. But her talent and all the courage she has shown in the past led me to believe that she could achieve this difficult task.
What I was actually surprised about was the manner of her 3rd place.
She charged from behind and didn't falter at all, and made a very important and very difficult clutch birdie on hole 17. Even on hole number 18, she played the most difficult hole on the course well, and gave herself some chance of a birdie.
It was a difficult putt, as people who watched the playoff will know. Meena Lee missed the nearly the exact same shot and missed it in exactly the same manner on the same side, so that shows just what a difficult read it was.
I am happy that Wie has put forward a winning performance. She did all she had to do. She put herself in the clubhouse lead and had a real chance of a playoff and an outside chance of the outright win.
As it turned out, Meena Lee got a great birdie on the last, but Wie wasn't to know this would happen.
Wie held the lead at the latest stage she has in any lpga tournament and she played with style and finished it well. She finished Birdie Par.
Pressel finished BOGEY BOGEY.
Ochoa finsihed BOGEY BOGEY.
That shows that these were no easy holes and shows just how well Wie did when the pressure was on.
Michelle Wie. Well done.
She still ain't No. 3. That place more rightfully belongs to someone like Cristie Kerr, Grace Park, etc.
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Were you talking about Michelle Wie who finished outright 3rd on -13.
These other players who should be ahead of her in the rankings in your opinion were:
Kerr -9, tied 9th.
Park missed cut. When did Michelle last miss an lpga cut? Two and a half years ago, that's how long.
These girls don't deserve to be ahead of Wie in the rankings.
Creamer who finished tied 11th at -8 proabbly won't be ahead of her after the next rankings either.
Michelle Wie hasn't done an awful lot to deserve No. 3 spot. Or 'enough.'
She certainly hasn't proved herself to be world No. 3.
As far as the Rolex ratings, when you say Wie "hasn't done an awful lot to deserve No. 3" you make it sound like an award. If you view it as an award, I could certainly see how you would think some other players, e.g. Kerr, should be raked higher than Wie. I think it's more an indication of recent performance. I have the same gut reaction as you that Wie shouldn't be higher than Kerr, but if somebody asked me to bet who between them will place higher the next time they play together, I would bet on Wie.
Morgan's immature antics both with the press and after being beaten need to stop. It's going to get her in trouble and turn people against her -- the press are always looking for a juicy story, and we often believe their lies and exaggerations. Such is the power of the press that one wrong word -- or one regrettable action -- can lose you millions of dollars in endorsement deals.
At least Michelle keeps her mouth shut. She's never put a word out of place yet.
I know you'll try to refute this, but I'll say it anyway:
Michelle Wie hasn't done an awful lot to deserve No. 3 spot. Or 'enough.'
She certainly hasn't proved herself to be world No. 3.
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Well she has moved up to Number 2 and deservedly so.
I understand that Michelle is a huge talent - I'm still waiting for that first win, mind you. My only gripe, though, is that she hasn't in my opinion actually done enough to deserve World No. 2 status.
How can you achieve such a lofty position playing the occasional LPGA tournament in the school holidays?
It took Vijay Singh about 20 years to get to World No. 2 (and No. 1, etc.). What gives?
There's no way that she's second best in the world.
**How can you achieve such a lofty position playing the occasional LPGA tournament in the school holidays?**
By finishing very high up in most of those occasional tournaments she plays, thats how.
1. world ranking will correct itself
2. players may pick and choose which tournaments would benefit them.