LPGA Major Championship Trophy will likely be presented to Michelle Wie in 2006
Okay, I’ve seen enough. No one on the LPGA Tour consistently strikes the ball better than Michelle Wie does. It is just a matter of time before she puts it all together with her short game and blows away the field in an LPGA event. As it happens, because of some short-sightedness involving LPGA membership rules, Wie will participate almost exclusively in LPGA Major Championship events. And the course set-ups are the most difficult in these LPGA Majors. Therefore, I believe her first win will come in a Major Championship. And yes, it will likely happen this year.
I was fortunate enough to play sensational Bulle Rock, site of the McDonalds LPGA Championship, a little over a week ago. Believe me when I tell you these players will have their hands full. In addition to being one of the longest courses they will play this year, the rough is up and lush. Already firm, if there is no rain, the course will only get tougher as the tournament progresses, favoring the most consistent. Take a look at last year’s final leaderboard and you will see nothing but the cream at the top with the likes of Sorenstam, Wie, Creamer, Davies, Ochoa and Gulbis. Annika Sorenstam took this course apart last year in the first three rounds, then cruised home to a win by three shots on Sunday. She was at the top of her powers then, but this is now. Sorenstam has been surprisingly human so far this year.
The course was about 100 yards shorter than it will be this year. Besides the par fives, there are several other holes that will really reward the long and accurate. No. 5 may be the toughest of them, but will not be televised. Watch how many stumble on No. 13 and No. 18.
Wie has a lot going for her this week. After her well-publicized US Open qualifier, she will be the only one in the field that will feel as though she’s playing a short course. She may not hit driver any more than seven times per round. And the greens will probably be a little slower than what she played Monday, giving her some much-needed confidence in her putting. I would be surprised if she is not in the hunt on the back nine Sunday, but I would not be surprised if she takes home the prize.
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125 comments
Annika is going to have to be on her game to get it done. It must be really hard for her to get up for events any longer.
It certainly sounds like it will suit Wie or an in form Sorenstam.
I will make one prediction. If Sorenstam doesn't win it, Wie will.
If Sorenstam comes back to her best, it will be very difficult for Wie, but I don't think anyone else including Ochoa, can stay with these 2 players.
Sue, When you learn the proper use of capitals, I might be inclined to pay some attention to your posts. Please notice, I said I might. Just for my edification, don't they teach the use of capital letters in British schools?"
Alex what an a-hole you can be..it is obvious her ShIfT key is not working.
For everybody else let it be known that BJ will not allow Greg to read greens with Michelle so she can grow as a player. Papasan Mecha Soooo.
Was it really necessary to post that comment twice. Was it really that important.
Just look out though when it all comes together.
The korean team also make a habit of doing late runs to the top and winning.
By the way, Michelle is tied with Creamer and Sorenstam at -1, and both of those players playing in the morning session when the scoring was generally much better.
Morgan Pressel, the one with the Amateur experience, you know her, the one who knows how to close the deal.
Yah that's her. She 35 putted her way to a +2.
By the way Morgan 3 putted the last 3 holes.
Michelle had no 3 putts.
So maybe people should start to worry about Morgan's putter too.
For Alex, when 1 round is played, that means there are 3 rounds to be played.
In regards to her performance, Morgan is way much better putter than Michelle. She'll rebound nicely I am sure.
Don't you have to "WIN" something in the LPGA to be awarded a Championship?
I made the correction to my blog above. Sorry about that.
They did have some rain early in the week there which took a bit of fire out of the greens. Combined with a nearly windless day, that is why scoring was so good Thursday.
I can only presume that you have not played there. Otherwise, you would not make such a ridiculous statement.
PS - Bulle Rock from the tips is as long as Muirfield.
So far Delasin and MW are -4 after 12. Alex is on target.
If this nearly 6,600 yard course plays like a pitch-n-putt for Wie, then the tour is in trouble when her putting improves because it is as long as any course they play.
That is not pitch and putt for Michelle.
By the third round the pressure will really mount for those who have not breathed the rarified air surrounding the top of a leaderboard at a Major.
In 2005 Michelle shot rounds of 69, 71, 71 and 69 to come up from behind and finish second, just three shots from Annika. Annika shot 68, 67, 69 and 73 to finish off the win.
Michelle has already bettered her 05 performance by a stroke in the first two rounds. If she can continue to put together sub-par rounds she will place herself in a position to win again.
The Wolfman came up with his prediction today:
McDonald's LPGA Championship: Mi Hyun Kim. Or Hee-Won Han. Actually, if you can find a McSouthKorean field bet for this one, jump on it.
As much as I hate to admit it I agree with him on this one. The Koreans have proved they can handle the pressure of big tournaments. A Korean woman is the most stubborn creature on the face of our Planet, which is a quality needed to finish out a Major tournament.
Wolfman forgot to add one McSouthKorean to his list who is scoring ahead of last year in the same Major tournament.
The players out on the course may have a long day ahead of them on Saturday. Sort of like a U.S. Open sectional I would say.
Are you saying that they could go out after a rain delay and shoot really good scores.
Should it not make it tougher instead of easier?
If it's softer, won't it play longer. How about the rough. It's pretty difficult rough. How will that be affected?
I think you are saying it would be easier to hold the greens when it is softer, but maybe you can tell me, what it'll do to the rough stuff.
Driving Distance Average: 270.25 (Averaged from a high of over 296 yesterday.)
Fairways Hit: 64 percent
Greens in Regulation: 81 percent
Putts per round: 30
The course will play much longer when wet so players will be driving to their carry distance. Fortunately for Michelle she places it well down the fairway on the fly.
I don't know about you all, but when I have to take constant relief during a round it really messes with my tempo.
Although a course will play longer when wet, the fairways effectively become wider because there isn't much bounce & roll, and the ball will stop on the greens where they hit it. So unless they are spraying it all over the golf course, it actually becomes easier for professionals - especially for those players who hit it longer in the air. Annika is probably on her knees right now, praying to get back out there today.
It is where you take a pitching wedge, and hit it at the hole, and then if you land on the reachable green, you putt the ball.
Are you able to reach the par 5, 596 yarded with your pitching wedge. Or how about some of the holes which are even 400 yards, can you reach those with your wedge?
By the way, that course is one of the longer ladies courses.
Annika is absolutely a professional and would be very insulted to hear you calling one of the longer courses she plays, pitch and putt course.
Actually on 2nd thoughts Annika wouldn't care what you would think in any way.
Something is rotten in the State of the LPGA. Three more board members resigned recently bringing that to a total of seven who have fled after Bivens came over; and today several players 'withdrew' from their second round at the McDonald's: Jimin Kang, Jennifer Rosales, Danielle Ammacapanes, Kim Williams, Becky Morgan, etc. What's going on?
Guys and gals,
Something is rotten in the State of the LPGA. Three more board members resigned recently bringing that to a total of seven who have fled after Bivens came over; and today several players 'withdrew' from their second round at the McDonald's: Jimin Kang, Jennifer Rosales, Danielle Ammacapanes, Kim Williams, Becky Morgan, etc. What's going on?
They sucked maybe and wanted to save some agony from missing the cut?
They are fair weather professional golfers?
Rosales quits consistently so that is nothing new. She is PMS personified.
Danielle had to get back to her real job and tend bar in Tucson.
Becky broke a nail or something.
Kang is the only questionable, maybe she is sick or injured. She carded a respectable 69 (the number for lovers) yesterday.
Don't worry too much about the LPGA board members who left. They are getting pretty long in the tooth and wanted to avoid dying in the office. Time for some new blood to decide what to do about the Wie Factor.
Ok, am I hired now?
The only thing left is possibly a pair of LPGA long, dangly and spakling earrings I imagine? Unless Cartier is bidding on her lobes.
Hey congrats hc2 you're hired with a one rider; you're now fired as Bivens consolidates her power and eliminates the LPGA board (one member at a time).
An example of corporate sepuka, done with honor and style.
3rd Round Grouping:
Start Time : 2:39 PM
Annika Sorenstam
Se Ri Pak
Karrie Webb
Now that is what I call a group of golfers.
Yes Wie has a chance.
But there are many other top knotch pros who are in a similar situation.
Just look at the group I mentioned of Pak, Webb and Sorenstam. Then there is Ochoa, Pressel, Miyazato, Kerr.
Most of the big names are -4 or better.
Maybe Wolfman was onto something with his McSouthKorean post and prediction.
Here are the lengths at the par 5s:
596 yards, 555, 493, 481.
Here are the lengths over at the pga's Barclay classic, par 5s:
575 yards, 526, 505.
Average lpga: 531.25 yards
Average pga: 535.33 yards.
So Alex, how about that. The lpga championship par 5's are on average just 4 yards short of the coinciding pga tournament.
The longest par 5 on the lpga course is 21 yards longer than the longest at the Barclay Classic.
Shanks, you sort of half-sided with Alex, or did you, on the length issue?
As for Morgan -- "beware of wolves in sheep's clothing."
On another note, there you go again Wie, as "average" a golfer as you are, you keep positioning yourself for a sunday run at majors playing just a handful of tourneys a year.
Wie, I bet you can't carry Alex's jock strap on a golf course. He bombs 300 yard drives and has a 6 handicap er, er, I mean he plays 6 under, er, er . Wie, let me get back to you on that one. He is supposed to be posting his card, er, soon, I think. See he knows so much about golf, and swings and putts! He's our best!
Just ask Dorothy Delasin (the first and second round leader) who just finished her fourth round in a tie with Morgan Pressel at plus nine. Golf is a cruel and unforgiving game.
The only time I show my card to anyone is when entering a USGA sanctioned tournament if asked to present it. The official has a right to see the card at entry. I've never been asked.
Golf is a game of honor and self policing. If Ford says he is a six it should be good enough for you.
I'm so happy for Se Ri; I've never seen her smiling so much, and her English has improved a lot. She is starting to sound like a laid back Southern Californian girl. Cool!
As for Michelle, it's the same old story: 35 putts on the final round is not gonna do it. She relies too heavily on her shotmaking; that any mishits here and there exposes her weakness in putting. Sorry kid, but you'll need to wait a few more years before you can grab one of those big shiny trophies.
Poor analysis.
Michelle's putting was pretty good through the last round.
Her mistakes were more with her wedges and short irons.
If you want to call anyone for putting, howwabout Pat Hurst. There's someone who needs putting practice.
Was my prediction so wild? Michelle finished 2 strokes back, and Annika 3 shots back. I was off the mark--but not that far. **
Close, meet horseshoes.
How about your prediction of 2005? Coulthard: Michelle Wie would win "at least two" majors in 2006.
Sounds like Wie needs to go 2-for-2 here pretty soon to make your increasingly outlandish fan-boy prediction come true.
In the real world, it would be a historic accomplishment for Wie to win even one women's major. Hell, even win one LPGA tournament. Or a tournament.
I guess by comparison, your latest prediction for this week was tame.
-George
*Michelle's putting was pretty good through the last round.*
Huh? Wie had 126 putts, which works out to 31.5 putts per round, right? I read on this site today that the LPGA average is 29.5/round. Somebody wrote that Wie had 35 putts on Sunday, although I couldn't verify if that was correct.
Sounds like you would have been accurate, for a change, had you stated "Wie's putting was mediocre." Unless you think worse than average is "pretty good."
-George
here are the raw statistics in putting totals for the contenders in the four rounds of the McDonald's LPGA:
Se Ri Pak: 114
Karrie Webb: 115
Lorena Ochoa: 116
Christie Kerr: 116
Annika Sorenstam: 116
Mi Hyun Kim:116
Ai Miyazato: 117
Shi Hyun Ahn:117
Pat Hurst: 118
Morgan Pressel: 122
Paula Creamer: 124
Reilley Rankin:124
Michelle Wie: 126
Any questions?
Putts per round average: 31.5
Fairways hit percentage: 87.5
Greens in regulation percent: 81
Putting average per green in regulation: 1.75
She could have been in a playoff in this event by cutting the .5 off her average.
Se Ri and Karrie simply putted their way into the final playoff.
Putting is a mysterious thing, just ask Vijay or Sergio.
Comment from: One-Putt [Visitor]
You're right again Shanks, if Michelle brings her putter to the course this week she has a good chance of winning. If she forgets it at home again she will still finish in the top five but no better.
A prophecy fulfilled. Bring the putter to the Women's U.S. Open Michelle, don't forget it back in the room.
MW averaged even higher putts per round at this year's Kraft Nabisco. I heard the golf commentarist say she averaged 32 on that one; and he commented : "It's hard to win any tournament when you are giving away 2.5-3 shots per round to the field."
So, it's not the first time this has been pointed out. The interesting thing is Team Wie thinks it's a shotmaking problem which should be adressed with Leadbetter rather than someone like Pelz.
Also, Wie typically hits the green on at least half of the par 5s in two shots and 2-putts for birdie from the 30-50' range. Those who hit wedge into the green will be putting from close range more times than not.
And you can forget that 3-putt on 18 since she had to make sure the ball was going at least fast enough to get to the hole.
I am not saying Wie is the next Ben Crenshaw but her putting looked pretty solid throughout the final round. She hit some really good putts that just didn't go in. That's golf.
I'm still comfortable with my prediction for a Major win for Wie this year.
As I recall from last year, you described yourself as a Creamer fan first, a Pressel fan second--but also a Wie fan since she is an American. Why does it seem like you are happy that the American Wie lost to golfers who were not American?
When you hit a high number of greens in regulation, you are likely to face longer putts.
When someone just misses a green and chips they are more likely to have a short chip, and then a tap in.
Also, putting stats that just give a total number of putts are often misleading.
It gives absolutely no indication of where the putts are from.
Surely people agree that a two putt from 70 feet is a good result.
Michelle had many lag putts throughout the tournament.
MW if she is to do anything needs to lower the putts per round to 29.9 in the LPGA; and 28.5 to play in the PGA.
If any of you taped all four rounds, perhaps you could track how many putts from 6-14 feet MW made. Assuming anything under six is a give me. I don't recall she made many.
Comment from: One-Putt [Visitor]
**Putting is a mysterious thing, just ask Vijay or Sergio.**
You probably don't want to create a parallel between Michelle and Sergio, right? Ouch!
(or maybe you do)
-George
Just as the Sun will always rise, it is a certainty that Michelle will be in position to win and do just enough to lose. I don't have the time or energy to debate the reasons behind this today, but let's just say it's becoming a safe bet that Michelle will finish top 5 and never win. A testiment to her consistency, but also a comment on her lack of a killer instinct.
Thanks to OnePutt for defending my handicapp and the game of golf in general. Oneputt and I agree on precious little, but we do agree on the importance of honor in the game of golf. Military Golfer, if I wanted to lie and impress everybody on this site, surely I would go a little lower than a 6 handicap. Sorry to dissapoint you, but I do currently carry a 5.1 index(home course 6), in the past calender year I have been as high as a 9 and as low as a 4 and no I do not use a foot wedge or roll the ball in the fairway, or do any other trick to try to lower my score. As far as challenging Michelle Wie, you must have me confused with a crazy person, It was never my intention to compare my game with Michelle's, simply to give some insight on the course that she was going to be playing last week. There is no course in the world on which I would give myself a chance to compete against Michelle Wie on...actually strike that I would feel pretty good at the local putt-putt minature golf course against her, but I think most people would these days.
**I'm still comfortable with my prediction for a Major win for Wie this year. **
At least, Shanks, you're in far better shape than Coulthard, who needs Michelle to go 2 for 2 in the final two majors this season for his prediction to come true.
-George
** Just as the Sun will always rise, it is a certainty that Michelle will be in position to win and do just enough to lose. **
I disagree. The Wie Fanatics and folks such as Chris Baldwin always make this fundamental mistake about Wie:
Baldwin believes (as proved by his blog that started all of this, when he said Paula Creamer is now and would always be better than Michelle Wie) that Wie is going to be a complete LPGA flop. There's no evidence of that. Just like there was no evidence that Phil Mickelson would never win a major tourney. Just as there is no evidence that...
... Michelle Wie is far superior to all LPGA players, as the Wie Fanatics state or imply with their drooling devotion and fawning posts. There is no evidence that she will always dominate that tour. Just like people have gone back and forth at different times about Tiger.
Golf is like baseball. It is cruel, unforgiving, exhiliarting, thrilling, and unpredictable, all in one game, one season, one day, one hour, one minute. We've seen it over and over again. Jack Nicklaus is waiting confidently while Lee Trevino or Tom Watson are sweating over a devlish shot off the green in the British Open. Until suddenly, the ball goes in the cup from downtown. Or Morgan Pressel is waiting on the fairway with quiet anticipation, until Birdie Kim makes one from nowhere.
The fact is, like baseball, you really do see something different every game, every round.
Anybody who arrogantly predicts what Michelle Wie is going to accomplish or fail to do is a fool.
-George
**As I recall from last year, you described yourself as a Creamer fan first, a Pressel fan second--but also a Wie fan since she is an American. Why does it seem like you are happy that the American Wie lost to golfers who were not American? **
Jim, don't you get it after a year? I hope Michelle wins. It would be a shock if Wie never won an LPGA tournament.
But when Wie doesn't win, it's entertaining to watch you Wie Fanatics melt down and make excuses for her and then follow that up with unsupported predictions of historic success.
Haven't you figured out that tracking these and other blogs is not about Michelle Wie. It's about you and the other Michelle Moonbats, Wie Warriors, or other appropriate moniker.
-George
Don't worry about George--he's just a little unhinged since his girl Pressel finished in 68th place!
The amateur champ rocked it to a +9 finish!!
Michelle has a good stroke on the putter, but she is definately lacking feel and speed control.
At the Fields Open, Michelle averaged 28.67 putts per round, and did not win.
Did someone not say she needed to get it under 30?
That is well under 30.
The thing is that Seon_Hwa_Lee averaged 24 putts per round, and Meena Lee averaged 26.33 putts per round.
Different courses have different greens so hc2 I think that shows that you shouldn't be comparing her stats against an individual pga tournament.
By the way, if you are wondering why Seon_Hwa_Lee had so little putts, compared to Michelle, perhaps it is because Michelle hit 14 more green in regulation that she did.
I would feel pretty good betting on Michelle Wie against almost anyone at the local putt putt minature golf course. Compared to the average person Michelle Wie is an absolutely superb putter. Her 1.75 putts per greens in regulation for the McDonald's LPGA is outstanding--but it is possible that you are an even better putter with serious weaknesses in other parts of your game.
**Michelle has a good stroke on the putter, but she is definately lacking feel and speed control.**
So Michelle has a "good stroke" but isn't sure how hard to hit her putts? Yet she has a "good stroke?"
{shakes head)
That's kind of like Norman deluding himself that Michelle putted very well through the four rounds -- yet averaged 31.5 putts per round, compared with the LPGA average of 29.5.
-George
You are obsessed with the 31.5 putts per round figure.
Perhaps, you can answer how she putted when averaging 28.67 putts per round at the Fields Open?
Well?
You are daydreaming.
Putters with good strokes in the LPGA are Miyazato, Rosie Jones, Christie Kerr and now Se Ri Pak. They all have a flowing,smooth back and through motion.
MW so called stroke is technically a 'shove' with little follow through which explains why the putts have too much pace and lip out/horse shoe. It took me five years to fix a similar flaw; and now I've never putted better in my life. My putts die at the hole rather than breeze past.
There is a direct correlation of missing greens and fewer putts. The 6 players with the lowest putts-per-round average on the PGA Tour also rank 72nd (Verplank), 119th, 145th, 150th, 183rd & 185th in Greens in Regulation.
Conversely, there is also a direct correlation of hitting greens in regulation and taking more putts. The 6 players with the highest GIR % also rank 32nd (Mickelson), 121st, 128th, 148th, 157th & 164th in putts-per-round.
So let's do away with the putts per round argument as it has little bearing on the merits of one's stroke. In fact, even the method of the stroke has little bearing on how good a putter is. Take a look at Nicklaus, Palmer and Player if you want to see ugly but incredibly effective putting stokes.
George, You are obsessed with the 31.5 putts per round figure.**
Norman, you seem to believe that 31.5 is "putting well." Yet in the real world, that's worse than the LPGA average. Can you explain now Michelle putted well under those circumstances?
Plus, over time, Norman, you have posted a gazillion stats in feeble attempts to rationalize Michelle's winless ways, and you call *me* obsessed with stats?
I brought it up because if, as you and others say, Michelle allegedly drives great, reportedly hits great approach shots, then the only thing that's left is the short game, and perhaps specifically putting, to explain her lack of wins.
-George
I said you were obsessed with that particular stat.
Since you asked the question:
****Norman, you seem to believe that 31.5 is "putting well." Yet in the real world, that's worse than the LPGA average. Can you explain now Michelle putted well under those circumstances?
******************************
George,
Just read Shanks post above your own. That answers your question.
Putts per round is a virtually worthless stat.
There is another stat that is better, it is called putts per green in regulation, but the lpga hasn't provided those for Michelle's rounds.
Putts per green in regulation, means that those who miss the green, arn't given an unfair advantage for missing the green.
If you can find Michelle's putts per green in regulation, and compare that to other players, that would be a good measure of putting quality.
Don't forget that Karrie Web could have won in regulation, but missed a short birdie putt in reg at 17. Se Ri Pak aslo missed a putt which dropped her to 8 under at the 18th forcing a playoff. Wie missed that (gasp!) 3 footer on 16. Annika or Tiger would have slammed that door shut right there!
I will say this though, putting comes with experience. Notice when it comes to averages for the tournament the yung'uns are at the bottom of the heap! The list almost duplicates how they finished (Thx 4 the list hc2)
Se Ri Pak: 114
Karrie Webb: 115
Lorena Ochoa: 116
Christie Kerr: 116
Annika Sorenstam: 116
Mi Hyun Kim:116
Ai Miyazato: 117
Shi Hyun Ahn:117
Pat Hurst: 118
Morgan Pressel: 122
Paula Creamer: 124
Reilley Rankin:124
Michelle Wie: 126
As much as I am a fanatic fan of MW, girl IT'S YOUR PUTTING!!! If you did not miss that 30" putt on 16 or the 18" putt at the 17th on saturday, you would have been in the playoff at the least. You had many putts inside 10 feet all week and they did not drop.
Wie fans, lets not kid ourselves. MW has got to improve her putting. No more missing 3 ft putts!
CASE CLOSED !!!!
As I asked you...
***
I brought it up because if, as you and others say, Michelle allegedly drives great, reportedly hits great approach shots, then the only thing that's left is the short game, and perhaps specifically putting, to explain her lack of wins.
***
If you're right -- for once -- are not the short game and the putting the only mechanical deficiences left? (Let's set aside Michelle's possible mental freezing up in crunch time, aka choking.)
BTW, Norman, your comments in Travel Golf regarding the recently concluded LPGA tournament and Michelle's putting in it are only the latest reminder of how you're full of horse manure.
You claim Michelle Wie putted "well" "through four rounds." So skeptics point out that her putts per round, based on total putts, were 31.5, which is worse than the average LPGA-er who does it at 29.5 putts per round.
Then you say, putts per round are meaningless.
But then you admit you don't actually have any other stats to back up your own claims about Wie's putting !!!!
I at least have some comparable measure to judge Wie's putting. It appears to be worse-than-average. Her inferior putting this weekend would appear to be one reasonable explanation for her ongoing lack of wins. Also recall the U.S. Open meltdown.
Is it not so that many close tournaments, including majors, are often won with a great chip or a great putt? Wie has yet to make the one great chip, that one great putt, to give her a victory.
Go ahead and use some other putting metric if that's a better security blanket for you.
But at least have the integrity to actually have something concrete before you dump on a differing approach.
-George
I think Shanks explained the putting statistics very well above.
If you aren't capable of understanding them, then that is just your problem.
I'll try to explain it as simply as possible:
- those players who hit a high number of greens in regulation have higher total numbers of putts per round.
Shanks gave you the pga stats to prove it.
Those with low greens in regulation hit much fewer putts on average.
It should be easy to understand that if miss a green, you likely have a chip, and you should get that close.
If you make a green in regulation, you will have hit your approach shot from quite a distance and will be likely to have a much longer putt.
As regards not having other stats, the lpga don't provide the putts per greens in regulation stats for non-lpga members.
*********
Okay George, this is taking real pity on you, by explaining it at it's most simple.
Suppose a player missed every green in regulation just. Then that player on each green chips the ball to about 2 feet from the cup, and knocks each 2 foot putt into the hole.
That player will have a total of 18 putts for the round. Is that player a great player, because they have such a great putts per round stat?
Hopefully that is easy enough for you to get it.
Baloney!
The list of total putts per round is not irrelevant at all. The list happens to show someone who had 114 putts (the lowest of all contenders); and guess what? That player (Se Ri Pak) ended up going home with some silverware and a big check.Also, the second best total putts (115) Kerrie Webb happens to have made it to the playoffs. A coincidence? I think not.
I think you are going to have to admit defeat on the issue of putts per round. I looked at the putts per round for Pak and Wie and was able to come up with a formula for predicting a player's overall score.
Letting P be the total putts, we get a final score of 261 + (P/6). This is exact for Pak and Wie. Rounding to nearest whole number this is also exact for Webb. The results are nearly as impressive for Morgan Pressel. The formula predicted that Pressel would be 2/3 of a stroke ahead of Michelle Wie which has to be considered quite close to the 16 strokes behind Wie that Pressel actually finished. In every one of these cases the error is less than one stroke for each of the 18 holes on the golf course.
This may be the best argument for her to stick to one tour or the other and stop jumping back and forth.
Michelle may not need to stick to one tour completely--but right now it is probably too much for her to do a 36 hole qualifier for the men on Monday, and then win a Major Championship for the women starting Thursday. Her biggest putting problem seemed to have been on the first day.
Even so she was in the hunt on Sunday. But until she posts an LPGA win, the pressure to score her first victory can make things more difficult in the final round--unless she has a Sunday cushion. I expect her first win to be in a tournament where she goes Sunday with a lead.
Wie's problem - if you want to call it that - is that her putting is not at the level of her swing, which is off the charts. But I do see improvement and that is not good news for the rest of the LPGA.
Do either one of you have any evidence to back up your comment that Wie "putted well"?
Wie "burned a lot of lips" with the tournament on the line.
Is that putting well? Did Mickelson "putt well" in majors prior to the first Masters he won? Did Greg Norman "putt well" in that major he blew?
And Norm ... when you try to do that condescending tone routine (which is a staple for virtually every post you make) at least try to get your grammar right, kind of how when you proved your ignorance by not even knowing the definition of "bested."
*Okay George, this is taking real pity on you, by explaining it at it's most simple.*
It's "its", not "it's", Norm.
So back to substance, Norm.
Don't forget that YOU claimed that Michelle Wie putted "well" "through the four rounds."
However, YOU have failed to come up with any metric to back up yet another dumb statement from you.
YOU are the one who made the statement. YOU are the one who says others are using an "irrelevant" metric.
If you want to ditch putts per round, then do so to your heart's content. If you have something else that's better, then use it to prove that Michelle "putted well" as you claim.
-George
Good putts die at the cup which allows putts that burn the edge to have a chance to go in. Crenshaw talked about it extensively in his instructional video. Bobby Jones also talked of a flowing pendulum stroke on that same video. MW's putting doesn't have those characteristics.
You folks are either wishful thinkers or blind.
hc2, there are many ways to make a putt. Crenshaw is a fabulous die-at-the-hole putter. Tom Watson was a fabulous bang-it-in putter. Whose career would you rather have?
Wie has all the talent she needs, at least off the tee and in the fairway. I still say there is an open question about how well Wie can putt. And others see weakness in the pitching game.
Either way, Wie must prove she has the brains and mental toughness to win. And the only way she can prove that is to win. She has to find some way to step on the back of everybody else's neck, including the golf course. The killer instinct is cruel yet crucial.
My guess is the odds are stacked against a Wie LPGA win unless she plays regularly on the LPGA. It's not impossible, the odds are just agaisnt her.
And regular play probably won't be allowed until after she's 18, as I understand the current rules.
Until Wie wins, the skepticism will remain.
(And the sanity of the Wie Warriors will continue to totter on the brink. Some have clearly gone over the edge already with their hyper sensitive name calling and bitterness.)
Bottom line: Wie may actually be playing better in 2006 than 2005 -- may be -- but does not seem to be playing well enough to really have a shot at winning.
In 2005, the pattern for Wie seemed to be to play herself out of contention in the earlier rounds and then have a very good 4th round, once the pressure was off.
The one time (U.S. Open) that Wie was in contention, she blew up in round 4.
This year, Wie generally does not seem out of contention going into the final round, then seems to stumble at one or more key points in the latter stages of the 4th round.
Wie is Mickelson-like, prior to that first Masters win.
The results are the same. No wins.
The pattern for Wie's losses this year seems different.
-George
Goerge, you're going way off line, talking about Norman blowing a 6 shot lead one day. That has no relevance here. As a good player, are you telling me that you have never been putting well but not making very many? I find that hard to believe. **
Then stick to the subject, Shanks. I expect incoherence from Norman, but I expect better from you.
You say Wie putted well. Back it up, other than your "feelings" that Wie "burned a lot of lips."
Some of us have some evidence that backs us up. Putts per round. If you don't like that one, fine. Come up with one that works.
It's on you, because you made the statement. We skeptics did our part.
-George
Shortly after the tournament ended I remember seeing more complete stats than what are now listed on the LPGA site.
I remember seeing 1.75 putts per hole in regulation--and One Putt gives this number earlier in the post, along with 87.5% fairways hit and 81% greens in regulation.
1.75 putts per gren in regulation--three players tied for the LPGA lead last year with 1.75, and this year that would tie a player for fourth behind Seon Hwa Lee's 1.71.
That sounds like evidence to me that Michelle Wie putted well.
As some of the others who post here will tell you, I have been critical of Wie coming down the stretch. So I watch for little things like weak putts and poor decision-making, anything that might betray the nerves. I saw none of that this past Sunday. I saw a handful of solid birdie putts that just missed, I saw solid strokes on the 2 par misses at 10 and 16, I saw 2 good long range 2-putts for birdie on 8 and 11, I saw her make a difficult downhill 30-footer for birdie on 13 (toughest hole on the course) and I saw her make a nice 6-footer for an up & in birdie on 15. I also saw good decisions on club selection on the back nine, not trying to force it too much. Oddly enough, it was her swing that gave her the most trouble Sunday, missing 3 greens with 9 iron or wedge.
As my previous posts clearly lay it out, putts per round is not a good indicator. Putts per green in regulation is better, but even that can be misleading. Players who hit it closer clearly have an advantage but players who hit par 5s in 2 have a disadvantage as they are typically putting from very long distance on such a hole.
Here is the statistic you should look at when deciding if a player is a good putter or not - scoring average. In my experience, bad putters don't score well, on average.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/bal-sp.steele12jun12,0,7234269.column?coll=bal-home-columnists
David Steele is a mainstream sportswriter, not a golf specialist, who covered a local event. I think the title of the article fits. "No putts about it, Wie has a hole in her game." The article seems to be just as incisive as the title.
***
Hey, Jim, so if it's NOT the putting, why don't you set us straight. Sounds like any time somebody points to a weakness in Michelle's game, people rush to say that's not really a weakness.
So since it looks as if Norm realizes he dumb he was to say Michelle "putted well" without anything to back up that statement, maybe you can set us all straight.
What happened? Why did Michelle lose?
But at least Steele followed Wie around. So he knows how many putts she took, how far they were, how she drove, approached, how her short game was going, how many fairways she found, greens in regulation, etc.
That's more than what apparently others have as they blather on about how we shouldn't use this or that metric -- yet have zilch to back up their blatherings about how Wie "putted well."
At least Shanks gave a summary of his recollections.
Heck, it doesn't really matter. There was one winner and a bunch of also-rans. In the real world, that's probably the stat that matters most.
Those who lost simply didn't play well enough often enough, whether it was driving, approaches, short game, chips, putts, mental game, or some combination thereof.
-George
In case you didn't notice, the title was a horrible play on words, with putt in place of but.
Steele seemed to think that Michelle Wie's lip out par putt on 16 was her second worst shot of the tournament. It was probably her most costly mistake--but no one can get through 72 holes with only one shot worst than a short lip out putt.
Steele also described this as Michelle Wie's best shot at winning a chanpionship--but it is fairly clear that it waas the Kraft Nabisco where she had an even better shot.
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