Jul 18

Gambling and Predictions on the (British) Open Championship

One of my boys – Lucky Lew – is currently vacationing in England, so some of the rest of my buddies and I are taking advantage of that by having Lucky Lew make a few legal wagers on the Open Championship for us. Funny thing about that is Lew is terribly unlucky and the nickname is very sarcastic.

Now, Hutchie is a real gambler so he sent over some serious cheese on a handful of each-way bets (half of your bet is placed on a golfer as a straight-up win and the other half is at ¼ odds for the same golfer to place in the top 5). Ole Hutch took several of the name golfers at high odds: Ogilvy @ 40-1, Toms, Allenby & Bjorn @ 80-1 and Leonard @ 125-1. His rationale was that he wants to hit it big. The rest of the guys are pitching in with more modest amounts, on Stenson & Goosen @ 40-1 and Els @ 12-1, also with each-way bets.

As for myself, I’m going nearly all in with Tiger Woods to win at 3-1, coupled with a small amount on Niclas Fasth @ 40-1 and Colin Montgomerie @ 66-1, both to win. Nobody on earth is hotter than Fasth right now, having followed his 4th place finish in the US Open with a win and a 2nd in Europe. I really like his chances - sorry, Baldy - unless Tiger Woods is, well, Tiger. And we all know how often that happens.

I’ll be anxious to read what our own PGA Punter has to say about the Open. He no doubt is in a betting parlor as we speak.

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8 comments

Comment from: Anthony Urquhart (aka PGA Punter) [Visitor]

Sorry to break the illusion Shanks, but I do all my gamblin' online these days. It's easier, cheaper and the odds are better! Oh, and as you will see, I think your picks are spot on!

07/18/07 @ 15:21

Comment from: Shanks [Member]

Alas, all of the loopholes have been closed and we can't gamble online here in the States anymore.

07/18/07 @ 16:07

Comment from: Eye On Golf [Visitor]

Ah yes, and golf is such a predictable game. That's why Zach and Angel were picked by all of us golf gurus.

07/19/07 @ 08:08

Comment from: Reagan [Visitor]

What about Els? Any chance?

http://www.mulliganplus.com/_assets/_user/File/course_guides/Carnoustie%20Golf%20Links_15.pdf Course Guide for Carnoustie!

07/19/07 @ 10:15

Comment from: Shanks [Member]

Els has a chance, sure. But I don't like the way he's been putting all year, excluding the final round at Loch Lomond.

07/19/07 @ 10:38

Comment from: Oliver Sudden [Visitor]

There are not many things more difficult than golf wagering, I'm almost glad the politicians shut me off. Not really though. The government shouldn't be in the business of saving us from ourselves to say nothing about what they did to the shareholders of the public gambling companies in the U.K. As a life long dog player my observation is 99% of the regulars are reasonable people that gamble for fun and lose less than most people would spend on a hobby like golf or fishing. Good gamblers know the best way to wager is to bet a little trying to win a lot. So at the dog track everybody plays trifectas and superfectas. In golf betting I always played 100+ to 1 shots using each way bets. It is a fact of life that psychologically people are happier winning small amounts frequently than winning large amounts infrequently. But given that the best punters are naturally skeptical people that would never play the chalk. We're looking for a black swan.

07/19/07 @ 19:11

Comment from: Shanks [Member]

Excellent observations, OS. The gov't should mind it's own damn business. If they did, they'd want the tax revenue from legal gambling operations that they are not getting from the illegal & overseas operations. Usually their arguments will center on those very few problem gamblers. But guess what? those people are already using alternate means to gamble their lives away. Certainly the hypocrisy of gov't-run lotteries doesn't stop them from making their silly arguments. Anyone who's ever been in a 7-11 has seen somebody of obviously little means betting $10-20 a day on the numbers.

07/20/07 @ 07:32

Comment from: Shanks [Member]

Results: Only my brother cashed a ticket. He had a little bit on Els to finish in the top 5.

07/31/07 @ 15:39

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