Will the United States Beat Europe to Win the Ryder Cup?

I want to say yes but, as a general wagering rule, it is never wise to bet on or against your home team. The reason is obvious: it’s too hard to separate emotion from good thinking. Despite that good advice, here’s what I am thinking (or feeling). The Americans have their best chance in a while to win the Ryder Cup. I’m not exactly feeling anything like Ben Crenshaw when he proclaimed to be a big believer in fate. No, I see many reasons to like the U.S. chances. Six, in fact.

Half of the American team has been playing very well during the three weeks of FedEx Cup, especially Jim Furyk, Justin Leonard and Anthony Kim. Playing nearly as well over that stretch was Ben Curtis, Hunter Mahan and Steve Stricker. It should be noted that all of those players finished better than red hot Sergio Garcia in the last FedEx event – the BMW Championship - and significantly better than Padraig Harrington. Does that mean much in the Ryder Cup? Well, in the area of confidence, it certainly doesn’t hurt the U.S. (Please don’t tell me about how tired Harrington was after his PGA championship win. He only had to play two rounds in each of the first two FedEx events as opposed to everybody else’s four because he missed both cuts.) I really think Harrington will revert to his historical Ryder Cup form, which is a modest 7-8-2 and similar to that of Stewart Cink. Sergio, however, is another matter.

The best piece of U.S. news is that Phil Mickelson is holding form late into the season for a change and also finished ahead of Sergio in the BMW. His poor play (a dismal 1-7-1) has been a primary reason for the European domination in the last two Ryder Cups. You can bet the ranch that will not happen again this weekend. Prior to those two fiascos, he was a stout 8-5-3. He and Kim may well pair up to be an awesome team such as the Euros have sported, like Seve & Ollie or Sergio & anybody.

I see Captain Azinger putting Mickelson, Furyk, Kim and probably Mahan out in every session. Everybody else will sit just once unless their play is poor. I would expect Kenny Perry and JB Holmes to partner no more than once, if only to spread out the Kentucky love. Stoic Chad Campbell and charming crowd favorite Boo Weekley will likely make a formidable foursomes pairing both days. Stricker and Curtis will pair well with anyone – perhaps each other – and be silent assassins as they are both in fine form. I love the attitude the rookies are bringing to the match. Reminds me of the old story of the little country boy refusing to give ground to the bully and saying “Well, that’s just an ass-whuppin’ I’ll have to take.”

The oddsmakers probably have it right in giving the Americans 2 chances in 5 of winning. As badly as I want to be wrong, it appears to me that Europe will win a nail-biter. Not only does all of this 2008 European side look to be in fantastic form, I’m just not sure the Americans will be able to overcome the loss of Tiger Woods. But in the end these mostly young Americans will stand proudly, with their noses bloodied, and look forward to their rematch in Wales with relish. To quote Crenshaw, “I’ve got me a feelin’ about this.”