Sep 17

Will the United States Beat Europe to Win the Ryder Cup?

I want to say yes but, as a general wagering rule, it is never wise to bet on or against your home team. The reason is obvious: it’s too hard to separate emotion from good thinking. Despite that good advice, here’s what I am thinking (or feeling). The Americans have their best chance in a while to win the Ryder Cup. I’m not exactly feeling anything like Ben Crenshaw when he proclaimed to be a big believer in fate. No, I see many reasons to like the U.S. chances. Six, in fact.

Half of the American team has been playing very well during the three weeks of FedEx Cup, especially Jim Furyk, Justin Leonard and Anthony Kim. Playing nearly as well over that stretch was Ben Curtis, Hunter Mahan and Steve Stricker. It should be noted that all of those players finished better than red hot Sergio Garcia in the last FedEx event – the BMW Championship - and significantly better than Padraig Harrington. Does that mean much in the Ryder Cup? Well, in the area of confidence, it certainly doesn’t hurt the U.S. (Please don’t tell me about how tired Harrington was after his PGA championship win. He only had to play two rounds in each of the first two FedEx events as opposed to everybody else’s four because he missed both cuts.) I really think Harrington will revert to his historical Ryder Cup form, which is a modest 7-8-2 and similar to that of Stewart Cink. Sergio, however, is another matter.

The best piece of U.S. news is that Phil Mickelson is holding form late into the season for a change and also finished ahead of Sergio in the BMW. His poor play (a dismal 1-7-1) has been a primary reason for the European domination in the last two Ryder Cups. You can bet the ranch that will not happen again this weekend. Prior to those two fiascos, he was a stout 8-5-3. He and Kim may well pair up to be an awesome team such as the Euros have sported, like Seve & Ollie or Sergio & anybody.

I see Captain Azinger putting Mickelson, Furyk, Kim and probably Mahan out in every session. Everybody else will sit just once unless their play is poor. I would expect Kenny Perry and JB Holmes to partner no more than once, if only to spread out the Kentucky love. Stoic Chad Campbell and charming crowd favorite Boo Weekley will likely make a formidable foursomes pairing both days. Stricker and Curtis will pair well with anyone – perhaps each other – and be silent assassins as they are both in fine form. I love the attitude the rookies are bringing to the match. Reminds me of the old story of the little country boy refusing to give ground to the bully and saying “Well, that’s just an ass-whuppin’ I’ll have to take.”

The oddsmakers probably have it right in giving the Americans 2 chances in 5 of winning. As badly as I want to be wrong, it appears to me that Europe will win a nail-biter. Not only does all of this 2008 European side look to be in fantastic form, I’m just not sure the Americans will be able to overcome the loss of Tiger Woods. But in the end these mostly young Americans will stand proudly, with their noses bloodied, and look forward to their rematch in Wales with relish. To quote Crenshaw, “I’ve got me a feelin’ about this.”

« European Press is Wrong to Chastise Ryder Cup Captain Nick Faldo

U.S. Must Neutralize Sergio Garcia to Have a Chance in Ryder Cup »

21 comments

§ Stacy said on : 09/18/08 @ 11:40
In answer to your title, I offer an emphatic "yes" that Team USA will win the Ryder Cup.

Of course, I'm not so sure that it will be because of Phil Mickelson's extraordinary play!
§ Shanks® said on : 09/18/08 @ 11:59
It is paramount that the World's No. 2 play like it. If he doesn't win at least 3 points, the U.S. would need a miracle.
§ Wendy (UK) said on : 09/18/08 @ 13:49
You're clutching at straws, ol' Shanks!

I disagree with practically all your
straws, particularly anything to do with recent form of players in Fedex having any relevance.

I do agree with you, however, that I think this one will be a real nail-biter, (the result being close enough to prove the US team are better off without TW - especially Mickelson), and that the rookies will do you proud. Whatever you say about my beloved Stewart, he did bring in more points that anyone else on the last US team, except TW (and beat Sergio in the singles which I keep repeating ad infinitum) so a bit of credit please.

Best of luck to them all.

(Europe to win, though).
§ Shanks® said on : 09/18/08 @ 13:54
Cink is not playing to his standard of late. He'll likely get in just two or three games.
§ Booger said on : 09/18/08 @ 20:50
Again.....EUROPE by at least 10 points!
§ Wendy (UK) said on : 09/19/08 @ 12:55
I didn't think Booger was interested in The Ryder Cup.

Stewart says "Take that, Shanks"!
§ Shanks® said on : 09/19/08 @ 13:02
Well done Stewart, well done USA! This been quite a morning session.

It's hard to take anyone seriously that has a nickname like Booger.
§ Wendy (UK) said on : 09/19/08 @ 14:32
It's as gripping as I hoped it would be. Big let-off for Garcia & Westwood. Leonard/Mahan result surprised me most - but probably not you. Of course, I have reason not to be a Leonard fan. See how Mickelson is enjoying it more now?
With Kim's nerves settled, think he'll have great afternoon.
Disappointed more US interest in MW than Ryder Cup, however.

Still, I know that at least one American and one Brit. are going to be enjoying themselves this w/e!
§ Shanks® said on : 09/19/08 @ 15:05
Foursomes is so unpredictable. Azinger is no doubt thrilled with 3-1. Leonard & Mahan were playing about as well as anybody coming in. Formidable team.

Good weekend viewing, Wendy. We'll smoke over all of next week.
§ Oliver Sudden said on : 09/19/08 @ 20:26
We obviously haven't won anything yet but I feel good that at least we have fielded a team that are playing well right now instead of the losers with experience we had in the past. Kudos to Azinger for that. Guys like Kim, Boo, and Mahan are what we need.
§ Wendy (UK) said on : 09/20/08 @ 14:06
With enormous team spirit, Stewart and Chad agreed to play all the bad shots on behalf of the US team; being an absolute martyr, Stewart even took his stone-cold putter with him. Unfortunately, apart from Jim and Kenny, the rest of the team were taking a bathroom break at the time, and no-one thought to pass the message on. Well, that's my theory, anyway.

Perhaps Sergio had overdone the shiraz? I suspect that Zinger (or you?) had doctored it.
§ Oliver Sudden said on : 09/20/08 @ 21:49
I make the singles 6-6 and we win 15-13. I pick Mahan, Mickelson, Perry, Weekley, and Furyk to win and either Leonard or Stricker or two half points.
§ Wendy (UK) said on : 09/21/08 @ 18:08
Many many congratulations! What quality golf - a delight to watch.

In the final analysis I had more faith in the US team than most Americans appeared to have. Thought Kim would get over-excited and make errors of judgement - I was wrong.

Wonder how the British media will treat Faldo?
§ Oliver Sudden said on : 09/21/08 @ 19:23
We won because of Kim, Mahan, Weekley, and Holmes. Guys who many wished weren't on the team. Kim won 62.5% of possible points, Mahan 70%, Weekley 83.3% and Holmes 83.3%. Boo shot 29 on the front today. Kim shot lights out. Good job Azinger. I hope please that this puts an end to this BS experience talk.
§ Shanks® said on : 09/22/08 @ 07:46
They won because Azinger talked the PGA of America into changing their ridiculous selection system. The Euros were smart enough to tinker with theirs until they figured how to bring their most on-form team. Now, the U.S. is on equal footing.

Agreed Wendy, the quality of golf was beyond exceptional. I know the British press will roast Faldo, primarily because of their horrible relationship, but I think he did a fine job. Not his fault that Garcia & Harrington did not bring their best stuff - which would have made all the difference.
§ Wendy (UK) said on : 09/22/08 @ 12:57
One of my favourite moments - no, not Boo doing his Kentucky Derby impression, nor Kim rushing to the next tee after he had already won the match ........ Jim Furyk SMILING and doing a little jig!

All losing captains get slated. I think Faldo did make a couple of tactical errors. He had some criticism for not front-loading, but the great Jack Nicklaus said he would never gamble on that format either, unless he had no other choice. Had the European team won, no doubt Faldo would have been praised for NOT doing the totally predictable.
§ Shanks® said on : 09/22/08 @ 13:15
Furyk actually has a sense of humor. Who knew? That little dance he did on 17 Saturday afternoon was priceless, although he would lose to Poulter on the 18th. The American broadcast caught Poulter himself smiling at that sight. There were so many incredible moments that it is impossible to pick through them all. I cannot even imagine the decibel level when Mahan made that bomb on 17. And you just knew hw was going to hit driver into trouble on 18 from all that emotion.
§ Wendy (UK) said on : 09/23/08 @ 14:11
I've heard Jim being interviewed a couple of times and thought he had a lovely dry sense of humour, although comments were delivered dead-pan. So the smile & jig combination was great. He has always struck me as being "comfortable in his own skin".

You're right that you just knew Hunter was too fuelled up on the 18th - so difficult to become icy cold at that moment. Still, I knew he had at least a half-point in the bag, and you can't blame me for being relieved that Paul scraped a half.

Still coming down slowly - can't work out why I don't feel as down as I could be, especially as the bubbly stayed in the fridge - should had drunk it as solace.
§ Shanks® said on : 09/23/08 @ 14:26
Read my new blog on Faldo & the press. It will tell you why you're not so down. Intuitively, you know that those guys of yours put up a great fight and just got outplayed - simple as that. We can all live with defeat when we know our best foot was forward.

So I think you should crack open that bottle and toast your men, as they deserve nothing less.
§ Wendy (UK) said on : 09/23/08 @ 14:37
You're absolutely right.

Cheers! A votre sante! Felicitations! (Well it is French bubbly).
§ Shanks® said on : 09/23/08 @ 14:41
Tres bien, mademoiselle!!!