Michelle Wie at the Sony Open: time to bail out

He! He! He! +9 +9 +9

I called it!

Tim you obviously haven't heard of sample variance have you.

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Here is a quote from a learned scholar, Mr Under Par:
Golf is a sport where your scores vary greatly from say to day. This is attributable to two things: firstly, the great number of variables on a glf course and, secondly and more significantly, the fact that even a couple of rounds of golf do NOT constitute a scientific sample, making what's known as "sample variance" a great factor.
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Let's see, she's currently tied for last at nine over with John Cook. If I were John Cook and I lost to Wie, I'd turn my golf bag, with all my balls in the pouch -- and I don't mean just the Titleists, Top-Flites and Pinnacles, but ALL my balls -- into the nearest pawn shop.

D.A. Points is 5 over after 7 holes, so Wie doesn't have that last place at the end of the round, sewn up, by any means.

Nah, D.A. is gonna win on points . . .

Hey, Alex, I don't know if you're going to see this anytime soon, but isn't it amazing how the Wiemen will turn on a dime? Now they're talking as if snatching second to last place would be a victory. LOL. This is so funny.

Under Par,
who said 2nd last place was a victory.

We are speaking humourously about how it would be nice if someone finished in a worse position.

But of course none of it matters anyway, due to sample variance.

If Paula Creamer was playing she would have hit a 75 at worst, and more likely around 70.

Well, Normy, we have seen a LOOOOOT of samples of Wie's play now.

Under Par,
Certainly, and some of those samples were at the lpga championships, or and the Women's British Open, and the Publinx.

Yes, and nothing about her "samples" -- or the whole they constitute -- suggests that she should be taking up space in a MEN'S tournament.

Again, Norman, do you have daughters?

Under Par,
No I don't.

As regards taking up space in men's touraments, do you know how the other sponsors exemptions are doing?

Sony are the sponsor. Who do you think they should invite?

Wie should keep and work for her goal.
Go Wie!
Never give up.

Hey, Tim. One Chris Baldwin is enough. Why do you want to follow Bald's footstep? BTW, " Hell, I can shoot 42"? . That's not the kind of words which we expect from "real sports writers".

Norm,

How are the other sponsor's exemptions doing?

Better than Wie, I know that!

Norman you sound like a broken record. Sample variance, sample variance, sample variance...I'm worried about you. you used to be such a proud man, you're words were so filled with the promise of a Michelle Wie breakthrough. To see you reduced to a bitter, angry wieman is truly discouraging. In all seriousness you know I agree with you when you say that we can not judge her on one round, but you must admit it was a dissapointing round. I would be interested to hear your true feelings on her round, and what must be a huge letdown for you, Michelle and all her fans. I would also be interested in your thoughts on how these types of dissapointments can effect her mental state. I believe this is the kind of thing that can have a lasting effect when she goes back to LPGA tour. Remember she does not have the luxury of falling back on the knowledge that she has won in the past.

Waitt!! Hold it!!!! Can anyone please reply to Ronnie on how he thinks Paual would have probably shot 70 at the Sony??? I'm gonna go crazy if no one replies back to him....


anyway...


To Ronnie:

YOU MUST BE OUT OF YOUR MIND!

I hope Paula is reading these blogs....specifically Ronnie's comments, because she will get a big "confidence" boost out of that guy...

Ronnie...has your brain developed into a working mind the equivalent to a 13-year-old teenager yet? Because it doesn't look like it...

Even Par and Alex would agree with me in saying that most of your paula claims are dogsh*t.

Alex...how many Alan's would Ronnie Get?

Alex,

I have weighed in and said that Ronnie is deserving of ten Alans; that is, assuming he's serious.

yay thank you par!

Under Par, As I've said repeatedly,it just can't get any better than this. Norm constantly refers to Michelle's game getting better. So, let's take the Sony as an example. 2004,71-68, 1 under, missed cut by one stroke. 2005,75-74, missed cut by 7 strokes. 2006, 79 first round, 14 strokes off the lead and a guaranteed missed cut. If she improves any more, she may have trouble getting employment as an orderly in the Ladies" room.

As for Ronnie's claim that creamer would have shot 70 in this condition, I will give something to think about.
Creamer shot 79 in final round of CJ nine bridge classic. There was strong wind but much weaker than sony. Course length was about 6200 yards with wide fairway and no rough.

Alex! Do you care to share your insights about Ronnie's latest musing? Maybe a new record...for 12 Alans maybe? Under Par gave him a full 10!

Under Par, I have a busy day tomorrow, so I can't keep up with these entertaining posts. Since I grade on a tough scale, I give Ronnie nine Alans.

Thank you Alex. I think Ronnie deserves a new level of "alan-ness." A new POINT system should be created to distinguish Ronnie's achievements...

The new point system will be based on Ronnie's name...Ron.

For a highlight of his achievements in 2005-2006, tune in, because I will post all of them!

(Ronnie, you are truly one of a kind...not even Alan could outdo you...maybe...)

Michelle was just sandbagging the field today, she will turn things around tomorrow with a 64. At least she is leading Jimmy Walker. Who the hell is that? Is his dad Johnny Walker?

I need a shot of JW I bet two large on Jason Gore that lard ass.

Stone,
Thanks for interesting points.
To answer your questions:

* As regards, sample vaiance, I was simple quoting Under Par. He had stated this sample vaiance stuff before the tournament, because he feared that she may make the cut, and he wanted to cover himself, by saying if she shot a good round, it was only due to sample vaiance. I was delighted to turn that back on him.

* Yes I admit that it was a disappointing round. I, like many other people, was very excited about the event, and the prospects of her making the cut, but golf doesn't always turn out the way you want it too, in fact it rarely does at all.

* I amn't overly worried about her mental state. One thing that I was worried about is that she set the bar so high on the lpga last year, would that add pressure to this year. While plenty of Wie-bashers were insulting her 2nd place finishes last season, I knew that she actually did brilliantly.

People have often asked, how do you expect her to do next season. I have stated, several times that she did extremely well this season, and that consolidation is the key. I am hopeful that she will win an lpga title, but I also recognise that a limited spread out schedule doesn't make it easy.

The thing about the forthcoming season is that she could play well, and finish all her events in the top 20, but if her highest finish was 5th for instance, people would be saying her game was going backwards.

In that way, last season on the lpga could have set overly high expectations, just like the 2004 Sony Open did, with regards to the lpga.

What all of us should have recognised, is that it too Tiger Woods quite some time, 8 events actually to find his feet on the pga.
Perhaps, we are all guilty of expecting too much too soon.
I certainly expected her to perform better on the opening day, but the jury is still out. If she has a good 2nd day, I think that would do alot to restore her confidence for the forthcoming lpga season.

Norman I appreciate you honest answers to these questions. You, as always make some fine points about showing restraint, something I sometimes have trouble with. Also please take with a grain of salt my comments posted on another blog as they are a little negative/pissy in tone. I do not think you are a emotionless number cruncher, I have a great deal of respect for your opinion, though sadly I disagree with many of them.

Sorry Stone, unfortunately I've probably already replied to your other comments. It's difficult keeping track of the going ons at these blogs.

MW most like will play better Friday. It's been her pattern to play well when there's no pressure or in this case nothing to lose.

It's also been her pattern to play terribly when something is on the line.

I find THE comments on John Cook outrageous. He will probably have a much better 2nd round, and I do not expect Michelle to beat him--but to say he should quit if Michelle beats him was really stupid.

Actually things should work out reasonably well for Wie. Because of her first round, she can play the 2nd round with very little pressure--and it will probably be easier for her to get over her performance this year than it was last year. Clearly she will want to work on her strength. There are two LPGA events in Hawaii coming up next week and I assume she will play both of them.

Interesting. Wie shot a 42 on her first 9--and it got worse, she shot 37 on her next nine. Will it continue to get worse with a 32 on her first 9 today?

Norman,

If you want to talk about sample variance, it would help if you actually understood what it refers to. Sample variance is when a sample isn't indicative of the characteristics of the whole. I said that if Wie shot two great rounds and made the cut that it would be attributable to sample variance because such a performance wouldn't be suggestive of her normal play. However, while I will admit that she performed worse than usual yesterday, it probably wasn't by much. As Alex said, the conditions were tough, thus, you have to keep things in perspective.

Jim Coulthard said:
Interesting. Wie shot a 42 on her first 9--and it got worse, she shot 37 on her next nine. Will it continue to get worse with a 32 on her first 9 today?
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Yes Jim, and then how about a score of 27 on her way in.
That's a 59 on day 2. That would do nicely.

Under Par,
I know what sample variance is, but I don't think you qualify as the person to decide where Michelle's normal play is at.

You are right that her average play in those conditions is not going to be that high, but that doesn't particularly worry me, because it isn't typical of a pga event.

** Comment from: Patrick [Visitor]
Alex! Do you care to share your insights about Ronnie's latest musing? Maybe a new record...for 12 Alans maybe? Under Par gave him a full 10! **

Patrick. Check my reply to Norman in the Chris Baldwin thread. Ronnie's been doing this recently. I know you're young, but you do seem earnest and an honest fan of golf.

Which is more than we can say for Ronnie.

Ronnie is deliberately over-praising Creamer as a way of mocking Chris Baldwin. I.E, Ronnie is a troll.

Just note the tenor of Ronnie's posts and keep in mind that Baldwin once said that "Paula Creamer is better than Michelle Wie now and will always be better than Michelle Wie."

The first part of that statement is arguably true: I know the Wie Warriors will twist themselves into knots with comparisons and attempts to put down Paula's remarkable accomplishments as a rookie, and along with the usual wouldas and couldas and shouldas regarding Wie.

But if you measure wins, Creamer had 4 in 2005 and Wie had zero. Therefore, you can arguably say Creamer had a better year on the golf course, if not in the bank vault.

It's the 2nd half of the statement that is ridiculous. Not because it could never be true. But because it is impossible to extrapolate in such a fashion.

So when you see Ronnie's posts, remember that he is just having fun with the Baldwin types and shouldn't be taken seriously.

-George

Personnaly I think Ronnie is Chris Baldwin. Notice how he responded to Chris' last thread a few minutes after it was created.

How does Michelle Wie make a double bogey? Sometimes she gets in trouble with her tee shot, and rather than simply conceding a stroke, she tries to recover--and just winds up getting into more trouble.

Local knowledge may have helped her do better than most at hitting fairways--but the deep rough was a problem for her, just as it was at the US Womens Open. I don't think Michelle Wie should over react to one bad round==just as I don't think John Cook should quit golf if he finishes behind Michelle today.

George said: "But if you measure wins, Creamer had 4 in 2005 and Wie had zero. Therefore, you can arguably say Creamer had a better year on the golf course, if not in the bank vault".

At least you said one intelligent thing.

The most uninformed post so far on these threads as concerns Michelle Wie should be credited to Norman. A few days ago, in answer to a demand that no excuses be offered if Michelle should miss the cut at the Sony, Norman was adamant in his refusal. He said that it would be important to him HOW she missed the cut. I'll take a stab at that one. It will probably be that she took more strokes to complete two rounds than the guy who finished in 70th place.

** Comment from: Paul W [Visitor]
Personnaly I think Ronnie is Chris Baldwin. Notice how he responded to Chris' last thread a few minutes after it was created. **

Yet ponder and you'll see that's very unlikely.

Think of all the Wie Warriors who lurch through these boards. Anything short of slavish and mindless devotion to Michelle Wie automatically guarantees a barrage of banalities from the Wie Warriors.

Baldwin need not have a sock puppet do his online dirty work. It's child's play for Baldwin to trigger many responses. He knows his audience, and when it comes to the Wie Warriors, that audience is reliable as one of Pavlov's pooches.

-George

** Comment from: Ronnie [Visitor]
George said: "But if you measure wins, Creamer had 4 in 2005 and Wie had zero. Therefore, you can arguably say Creamer had a better year on the golf course, if not in the bank vault".

Ronnie said: At least you said one intelligent thing. **

Oooh, the real Ronnie -- the one with the thin skin -- is finally coming out to play now that I've exposed his game!

-George

Boycott NIKE...If they go bankrupt, they will not be able to afford to pay for the exemptions!

With all due respect to the Sony and the golfers, the tournament does not have a very strong field. I wouldn't categorize it as weak, rather as "thin."None of last year's major winners are there. Phil, Tiger, and Mike C aren't the only big names absent. How about Ernie, Retief, Padraig, Darren, Chris D, Sergio, Justin, Monty, David Howell, Angel, Ian, and Nick O'Hern just to name a few. If she missed the cut at the Sony by the proverbial mile, what chance would she have against a really deep field? As Under Par is wont to say,"slim and none, and Slim just left town."

Alex,
I don't think she will be going up against a really deep field any time soon. You only get those fields at majors and world golf championships.

At any typical pga event, there will be top names missing.

This field was fairly strong by normal tournament standards. The John Deere should be weaker. She has a decent chance there.

IF anybody call SONY open a weak field, he doesn't know a thing about PGA tour tournaments. I wouldn't say it was one of the strongest field but pretty decent one partly because it was right after Mercedes. Almost all the winner from the revious years were already on Hawaii and it's being the first full field event.

SONY Open is definatley not a weak field IMHO.

Hey, it's been a while since the 2nd round and NO COMMENTS?? Her 7 birdie 68 didn't call for anyone to say anything? The fact that she beat Vijay, the No, 2 golfer in the world, 68-69 means she is NOT GOOD ENOUGH to compete on the PGA tour? The fact that she beat or tied 134 PGA card-carrying members does not mean anything? The fact that her +7 total for two rounds TIED Sean O'Hair, the PGA's rookie of the year, AND Jason Gore, who could be the rookie of the year this season, does not mean anything? Come on guys - let's hear it for MICHELLE WIE - who is a cinch to make the cut at the John Deere in 2006!!!

Boola,

Shooting some good rounds now and again doesn't prove that you deserve to be on the tour. There are lots of guys who can do that but who can't earn and retain tour cards.

Comment from: Under Par [Visitor]
Boola,

Shooting some good rounds now and again doesn't prove that you deserve to be on the tour. There are lots of guys who can do that but who can't earn and retain tour cards.

Based on the comments I've seen the Jackboot crowd post they have condemned Michelle to a life of golf hell.

To me the jury is still out and will be for several years more. I don't expect much from sixteen year olds, except cleaning their room, doing homework, being home on time and never and I mean never turn on Rap music in the house.

Other than that my expectations of teenagers are much lower than the crowd around here.

Most of you guys and gals can't remember what happened yesterday, much less what you were doing at sixteen.

No, the jury isn't out on what I'm addresing. I'm simply saying that she doesn't deserve the gratuitous hype and has done nothing to warrant sponsor's exemptions on the men's tour on a silver platter. The future may be different, but those are the facts as of now.