Why Tiger Woods will win the Masters again

Mark Sweeney of the New York Times has an interesting story about Tiger Woods. Sweeney delved into the stats to emphasize what most of us already knew: Woods is lackluster in some departments, like driving accuracy, but light years ahead in others, like hitting greens in regulation, putting and sterling iron play.

Sweeney came up with his own model, which showed that hitting greens in regulation and putting combined to account for 5 percent of the “predictive power of scoring.” When he added in “scrambling,” that number rose to 78 percent.

From beyond 150 yards, the average tour player goes south when trying to hit greens. Woods shows a “decelerating drop-off.”

When you move from 125 yards to 200 yards, Woods is clearly head and shoulders above.

But, what really makes Woods stand out is all those putts he makes from the 10- 25 foot range.

Sweeney didn’t mention this, but the reason why Woods will probably win the Masters again is that you can add nerves of steel on top of all these other factors.

Other players might have these stats, but Woods believes he is going to win the big tournaments. He isn’t immune to nerves, just less susceptible than any other player on tour.

That’s something you can’t measure.